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Winter Storm Threat: February 17-18 (Only/Final Call)

A nail-biter between warming low-to-mid level air and marginal temperatures/wet bulbs at the surface. At least the Sun won’t be fighting most people during most of this event from D.C. northeastward.

Biggest uncertainty lies with snowfall rates, especially in areas that have marginal wet bulb temperatures at or above freezing (i.e. anywhere south of the Frederick, MD to Philadelphia line, generally speaking). That wet bulb freezing line has also been creeping further north than what I had anticipated when looking at the setup over the past few days. We’ll see it the wet bulb temperature or the snow/sleet rates win.

Winter Storm Threat: January 3-4 (Only/Final Call)

Not too often we get a good coastal storm without a notable blocking pattern in the Atlantic, but here we are.

Emphasis on the “coastal” part. Without the blocking pattern in the Atlantic, there isn’t much to shove the coastal storm more inland, so what’s left is a mostly I-95-and-east event for the Mid-Atlantic. What’s not shown on the map is the wind, and boy is it going to get windy during the tail end of the storm and beyond. Some power outages are likely in the 4-8″+ zone. As the system departs the Mid-Atlantic, gusts behind it will kick up to the 30-40+ mph range, so look out for blowing snow and drifts across the roads!

There’s definitely going to be some mixing issues in far eastern North Carolina and perhaps briefly around Virginia Beach and the far southeastern Delmarva Peninsula, but other than that, we’re looking at full-on snow.