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January 2019

Winter Storm Threat: January 12-13 (Initial Call)

I decided to not be lazy and actually make a snow map for a Mid-Atlantic snow event this time. I may have skipped the first two of the season.

Ample cold air supply with a 1040+ mb high to the north and cold air in place preceding the event means there should not be much issue with getting the start of the snow to stick late Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon. This interesting disturbance actually has two parts, one being on Saturday and the other being a low pressure center developing over the Carolinas on Sunday.

The two big questions are 1) How much does the dry air ahead of the storm affect the snow rates/ratio, and 2) How strong is the Sunday disturbance in the Carolinas, as 1) could eat up some of the lighter snowfall and make for lower totals, and 2) will greatly influence how far north the more moderate snowfall gets on Sunday.

Mixing issues start to hit once you hit the Richmond metro to Ocean City, MD line. North of there, it should be all snow, with >10:1 ratios as you get to D.C. northward.