After a long, long period of having a subtropical ridge anchored over the Southeast, it appears as though the long-wave pattern has finally shifted, with an upper-level ridge over the Desert Southwest and Plains and a trough over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This will mean warmer weather for the Southwest and cooler, disturbed weather for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
The next couple of weeks appear to be rather turbulent weather-wise as the Northern Hemisphere transitions into the winter weather pattern. Cut-off lows, blocking ridges, the potential for powerful low pressure systems and tropical systems near the U.S. are all possible as we head into October. With so many things possible in the future, forecasting anything beyond five days will be extremely difficult, so don’t be surprised if your extended forecast makes dramatic shifts this month.
The GFS model has been hinting at a powerful mid-latitude system in the 10-12 day range, which could mean some interesting weather and an awesome chase day for myself and Jason, but we’ll have to wait and see what pans out.