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Drought cancel coming up for the East Coast?

With the models starting to get a consistent idea that heavy rainfall will be possible along the East Coast next week, could the drought-stricken coast have a sudden end to this summer’s dry run?

The GFS model is much more bullish than the ECMWF model when it comes to rainfall… it has a slightly slower tropical system with a track that’s further west than the ECMWF. Most of this tropical precip. north of VA comes in the 11-15 day period in the GFS. Both models show that, between the cut-off low and the tropical system, widespread 1-2″+ rainfall totals are possible throughout the Mid-Atlantic and northern Southeast during the 6-10 day peroid.

NOTE that the GFS 00Z images below are very bullish. Images are courtesy of MDA/EarthSat.

GFS 6-10 day precip totals:

GFS 11-15 day precip totals:

Current drought conditions:

Shots of cool air bringing early fall to the Northeast

A series of low pressure systems will dive into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic from southern Canada over the next two weeks, which will bring cloud cover and rainy weather to the Northeast. Temperatures could warm up to normal levels between systems, but the majority of the time the Northeast will be hit by below normal temperatures, creating an abrupt change from extreme summer heat to cool fall weather. This pattern does not appear to be long-sustained, though, as ridging over the central U.S. could move warmer temperatures into the East going into the last week of September.

Meanwhile, the southern U.S. will get a period of above normal temperatures as the subtropical ridge sits over the region. Summer has been rather relentless down there this year as far as above normal temperatures, and it looks like it will be awhile before they will catch a break.

EDIT: I’ll probably be using a different U.S. map in the future… I was just trying this one out. The blue on the ocean may be a bit too distracting to the rest of the image.