With the models starting to get a consistent idea that heavy rainfall will be possible along the East Coast next week, could the drought-stricken coast have a sudden end to this summer’s dry run?
The GFS model is much more bullish than the ECMWF model when it comes to rainfall… it has a slightly slower tropical system with a track that’s further west than the ECMWF. Most of this tropical precip. north of VA comes in the 11-15 day period in the GFS. Both models show that, between the cut-off low and the tropical system, widespread 1-2″+ rainfall totals are possible throughout the Mid-Atlantic and northern Southeast during the 6-10 day peroid.
NOTE that the GFS 00Z images below are very bullish. Images are courtesy of MDA/EarthSat.
GFS 6-10 day precip totals:
GFS 11-15 day precip totals:
Current drought conditions: