mid-atlantic discussion
Mid-Atlantic Discussion – Feb 24, 2012
I can’t believe I haven’t done one of these since August… been too long. The first real chance for severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic this year has arrived! Tomorrow’s looking increasingly promising for at least some severe wind threat in addition to an isolated tornado or two and maybe some hail. Strong post-frontal winds and [...]
Widespread rain event over the next 5-7 days… some severe
An upper-level low is forecast to move into the Midwest tomorrow before cutting off from the main flow, which will allow it to linger over the Midwest and Tennessee Valley regions through around Monday or Tuesday before it lifts out of the eastern U.S. This has a couple of different implications for the region… The [...]
Mid-Atlantic Discussion – Aug 21, 2011
It seems like I jinx our severe weather every time I make a post about it. We’ve been faring a lot better with the pulse-type storms than with any sort of organized system this summer, but unfortunately you can’t really chase pulsers since they almost always weaken before you can get to them… not to [...]
Mid-Atlantic Discussion – Aug 14, 2011
Clouds and weak LL winds will hurt severe chances today, but okay lapse rates, decent UL support and dewpoints in the lower 70s should help make things a little interesting this afternoon. Secondary low development in NC/S VA certainly won’t help our poor LL wind situation as the SFC winds weaken and become more variable. [...]
Mid-Atlantic Discussion – Aug 9, 2011
Aha! Another chance for storms! But what’s THIS?!? Latest models say best dynamics will be to the north in eastern PA and NJ? If enough instability can get going up that way, that’s where I’ll be chasing tomorrow. Pretty nice wind field coupled with modest CAPE, with one of the stronger vort. maxes we’ve seen [...]
Mid-Atlantic Discussion – Aug 3, 2011
So… here we are a month after the last Mid-Atlantic write-up (the event failed, BTW) with a new threat and different variables as we look at tomorrow’s severe weather. Gonna just list the pros and cons and go from there: PROS: – Good low-level speed and directional shear. – Excellent low-level lapse rates. – Upper-level [...]
Mid-Atlantic Discussion – July 4th holiday weekend
Expect temperatures to be near normal to above normal this holiday weekend, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s Saturday through Monday (for the lower elevations). Scattered clouds should bring some relief from the sun, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible each day. Organized storms and severe weather seems unlikely during this period, [...]
