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mid-atlantic discussion

Mid-Atlantic Discussion – September 16

A shortwave trough will be packing a big punch of energy as it moves east over the Mid-Atlantic region. In the high shear/low CAPE category, this system has plenty of upper-level support from a vort. max and the left-exit region of a developing upper-level jet. A strong 850mb jet will also be developing this morning and afternoon, which will provide nice bulk shear values in WV and W PA. This low-level jet will also rapidly transport 60s dewpoints into the region, which will help fuel storms as they initiate west of the Appalachians.

Visible satellite and radar looks rather poor this morning, with widespread cloud cover and precipitation in OH, WV and W PA. However, given the good amount of upper-level support and orographic lift from the Appalachians, storms could still fire soon after the rain passes through. Water vapor looks favorable for dry-slot initiation, which can be rather potent with the upper-level support. This would lead me to generally agree with the SPC forecast with the overall severe risks.

There is also a risk for severe weather near the East Coast as unstable air moves in off the Atlantic, but it will not have as much support from the upper-level features, so it will have to rely more on daytime heating to initiate storms.

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Chase potential: 60% (would be higher if travel distance was shorter)

Chase target(s):
WV/W PA
DELMARVA/NJ