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mid-atlantic weekly forecast

Mid-Atlantic – The Week Ahead (Mar 27 – Apr 3)

After bombing last night’s snowfall forecast (verification coming later… it was way too dry and the rates were too low for most to see accumulation), it’s time to pick up the pieces and look at what we’ve got coming in the week ahead.

Skies will cloud up in the southern half of the region tonight as rain and maybe some mixed precipitation move through south of D.C. tomorrow. Precipitation totals should stay on the lighter side. Tuesday will be mostly sunny but still cool as high pressure quickly passes over the region, with another system bringing in light to moderate rain late Tuesday night into Wednesday. The northernmost parts of the region could see some wintry precipitation mix in.

Guidance begins struggling with the weather pattern as we head into Thursday, but the general idea is that clouds will linger over the region on Thursday as a coastal system develops on Friday. Right now it’s looking like it should stay as rain on Friday, with some frozen precipitation in the mountains. I would be screaming “OMG snowstorm!” if this was January, but the surface temperatures will probably not be there for this one. However, if this storm can pull enough cold air down from the north, we could be talking about a different story. This could be Mother Nature’s April Fools’ joke as winter’s last hurrah.

Temperatures will warm up as we head into Sunday. It’s unclear whether or not the warmer pattern will stick around going into next week, but the trends are currently to the cooler side past this short period of warmth.

Mid-Atlantic – The Week Ahead (Mar 21-27)

Sorry about the delay, but here we go.

After the initial batch of rain today, skies should slowly clear out as a westerly wind tries to bring the region into the upper 60s to lower 70s. A cold front coming down from the north could trigger some stronger thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, a few of which may become severe. While not chase-worthy, they could be something to snap a picture of if they come in locally.

Tuesday and Wednesday will keep some of the warmth around as the next system approaches from the west. Rain is expected late Tuesday into early Wednesday, with some clearing before another round of rain and thunderstorms moves through Wednesday afternoon and evening. There is a better chance at getting severe storms on Wednesday, and it will be monitored for chase potential.

Cooler air will come in behind this system, with light rain showers on Thursday giving way to mostly sunny skies on Friday. The fairer weather will be short-lived as another system forms off to the west, which will push rain into the region Saturday into Sunday. Right now this weekend’s system appears to be just boring rain, but a couple of small changes is all it would take to get thunderstorms on Sunday.

Mid-Atlantic – The Week Ahead (Mar 14-20)

A little late on this post as I had to use my time to find a new place to live… at least that’s done now 🙂

Not too much on tap this week as we head into warmer weather… I’m talking highs in the 60s for most of the week, with 70s (maybe 80+) going into the weekend. A storm system will bring some rain into the region Tuesday and Wednesday, with thunderstorms possible across the southern parts of the region. Saturday will be host to isolated showers as a weakening cold front pushes through from the northwest.

The warm pattern will try to persevere as we head into next week. The subtropical ridge is trying to take a stronghold over the Southeast, which would produce a weather pattern similar to last year if it holds through most of the summer.

Mid-Atlantic – The Week Ahead (Mar 6-13)

It’s raining. Most of the area should have about 1.0-1.5 inches of rain before the storm moves off to the north and east tonight. It has already changed over to snow in the Appalachians, and it may switch over to snow briefly in the DC area.

Monday and Tuesday will be a bit drier as temps hold near seasonal levels, if not slightly below. The rain will come again Wednesday night into Thursday as another generous amount falls over the region. Right now it looks like most will see another 0.5-1.0″ of rain mid-week. Like the current storm, this system will likely drop some snow on the mountains on the back edge.

The forecast starts to get tricky again as we head into the weekend. A secondary low could keep the mid-week systems close to the coast on Friday and Saturday as another system moves in from the Great Lakes region. The most likely situation for Friday and Saturday is mostly cloudy skies with rain showers possible. Drier conditions are forecast for most of the region on Sunday, with a chance of rain and snow showers in the western Apps.

Is it May yet? I have a feeling that March will continue to be miserable for most of the region this year. April could be hit or miss.

Mid-Atlantic – The Week Ahead (Feb 27 – Mar 6)

Temperatures will be above normal today as the sun peaks through scattered clouds southerly winds push warmer air into the region. The birds are chirping this morning as spring tries to get going early in our region. Enjoy today, because tomorrow will be a different story.

***** IMPORTANT INFORMATION CONCERNING MONDAY’S WEATHER *****

 
After a miserable but warm start to Monday, skies should clear up a bit as temperatures climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s ahead of a rapidly approaching storm system. This system is expected produce plenty of severe weather across the region, with most of the concern centered on severe wind as storms line out, with some bowing segments. The storms should start moving across the Appalachians in the early afternoon, approaching the BWI/DC/RIC areas in the late afternoon or early evening. There is also some tornado and hail potential with these storms as a decent amount of thermal instability (CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) and excellent wind shear fuel the thunderstorms. The SPC currently has a 30% severe risk (high-end Slight Risk) over most of the region, but I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if it got bumped to a low-end Moderate Risk somewhere in the region (central/southern WV/VA and DC/MD?). Yes it’s February, but this storm is more of an April-type system for the region, and should be taken seriously. Do not let your guard down on this one.

Following the Monday storm will be a nice break in the weather as mostly sunny and seasonal weather takes over. Tuesday through Thursday should be pretty nice as we start the month of March and meteorological spring along with it. Friday will be a bit gloomier as clouds and a few rain showers pop up over the region. This will continue into Saturday as a very complicated pattern evolves over the weekend. The models begin to SUBSTANTIALLY diverge with a late weekend storm system approaching the region from the west. The GFS currently has a storm moving through Saturday night into Sunday, while the ECMWF takes a much slower and perhaps more complicated look at this system, bringing it through much later (late next Monday). Right now I would go with a chance of rain showers Saturday and Sunday, but it is probably the most complicated system I’ve seen this season (and there’s been plenty of them), so confidence is very, very low.

Mid-Atlantic – The Week Ahead (Feb 20-27)

Today will be the calm before the storms as a two-part system brings rain, mixed precipitation and snow to the region Monday and Tuesday. The rain will start early tomorrow across PA and edging into northern MD as the first piece of energy pushes through. As the light/moderate rain pushes further south into northern VA, all of MD and Delmarva, a changeover to mixed precipitation and finally snow will occur on the northern edge of the precipitation. Temperatures will crash from the 60s Monday afternoon into the low to mid 30s Tuesday morning. Because of the warmer temperatures and rain to start, snow will have a hard time sticking to the ground from DC southward, if it even snows at all in the southern parts of the region. Snowfall totals of 1-2″ (and local totals of 2-4″) are possible from just north of DC to the MD/PA line, with 2-4″ (and locally 4-6″) north of the Mason-Dixon and in the western Appalachians. Most of the snow will fall early Tuesday, with some snow showers lingering past morning rush hour.

High pressure will move into the region to keep things quiet until the front edge of another system moves into the region on Thursday. Heavy rain and a maybe thunderstorms will be possible with this next system, with a possible changeover to a little snow at the back-end of the storm in the northern and western parts of the region.

After this system exits the region Friday night, there will be a brief break in the wet weather until yet another storm moves in early on Sunday, which will bring more rain and maybe some snow into the region. Next Sunday’s storm has some big snow potential to the north of the region, and it will be something to keep track of for our region as well.

Mid-Atlantic – The Week Ahead (Feb 13-20)

The main story for this week is the changeover to mild, spring-like conditions throughout the region as an upper-level ridge builds over the Southeast and advects warmer air up from the south and west. Valentine’s Day celebrators will notice a bit of a difference between tomorrow and last Valentine’s Day, which featured highs in the lower 40s, mostly sunny skies, gusty winds and two feet of snow on the ground. This year should have just a little snow, with highs in the upper 50s (could we get a 60F high at DCA?), mostly sunny skies and gusty winds. Well, alright, it’s not that dissimilar to last year, but I’ll certainly take upper 50s over lower 40s.

Temperatures will stay in the above normal category through most of the week, with Thursday and Friday peaking in the 60s throughout the region. So what’s going on while we have these warm temperatures? We’ll be talking about Sun, Sun, and more Sun this week, with a couple of weak and mostly inconsequential cold fronts passing through. The first cold front will move through Monday night, with the other coming though Friday night. It’s looking like the western Appalachians and PA should see some light rain from both of these fronts, but the downsloping surface winds could keep the leeward side of the mountains mostly dry. The models seem to like this idea, but I wouldn’t rule out a stray shower or two on Valentine’s Day or on Friday east of the mountains.

Once the weekend hits, the region will get knocked back down to near normal (or slightly above normal) temperatures as the dry conditions persist. However, enjoy this week as much as you can because we could be looking at a shift in the pattern next week as storm systems try to erode the upper-level ridge in the Southeast.