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mid-atlantic weekly forecast

Mid-Atlantic – The Week Ahead (Feb 6-13)

Halftime special weekly forecast! (And what a horrible halftime show it was!) I decided not to do a snowfall map for Mon/Tue since it’s not too big of a deal for most of the population. 2-4″ in the western Apps and in western/northern PA, with some light rain for MD and maybe some back-end flakes that don’t do much. Looking into Thursday’s storm I still won’t discount 2-4″ for most of the region, but right now a more southern/out-to-sea solution is favored over a storm working north into Baltimore and southern PA. It’s not out of the question, though, so I’ll keep an eye on it.

Perhaps what could be bigger news for those tired of the cold is that a warm up period is on the way. We’ll start to see the temperatures move to the near normal or above normal category this weekend as temperatures continue to climb into next week. A lot of that snow that we might get on Thursday won’t last too long. We could see some 60s hitting DC next week!

First call for the Thursday storm coming at you tomorrow.

Mid-Atlantic – The Week Ahead (Jan 30 – Feb 6)

We jump right into it this week as the complicated winter weather pattern continues to make forecasting rather difficult. The region will be a bit colder tomorrow as mostly cloudy skies and northerly winds kick in and cold air damming develops along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. The strength of the CAD will be key on Monday night through Wednesday as precipitation starts to move into the region from the south and west. It should start off as light snow from central VA and southern MD northward, with mixed precipitation just south of that and rain even further south near the VA/NC border. The wintry weather will shift further north as we work into Tuesday, with areas from DC north changing over to freezing rain. There should not be that much precipitation on Tuesday south of PA as the main bulk of the storm moves into the area on Wednesday. Areas north of Montgomery County, MD could see significant icing from this storm as QPF amounts support around 0.5-0.75″+ of wintry precipitation on Wednesday. I’ll go into more detail on a map (coming very soon!) that will show the main bulk of the precipitation breakdown. Areas further north in PA will see nearly continuous mixed precip. and snow Monday night through Wednesday as a band of moisture sets up on the northern side of a stationary boundary.

We’ll get a small break after this storm exits the region Wednesday night and high pressure takes over. Right now the models are calling for a late Friday into Saturday snow and mixed precip. storm event for the region, but I suspect they could be kicking the upper-level energy out of the Southwest too quickly, and we could actually be talking about a Sunday/Monday event. Regardless of the timing, we are seeing similar model trends to last Wednesday’s snow storm, with some issues with timing and where the main band of snow sets up. I hate to use this terminology, but we’re looking at a “thread the needle” situation for this storm (much like we had with the last storm), in that the system will have to set up just right in order to produce big snowfall (6″+) over the region. There will be an update on this storm tomorrow and I’ll make a first call snowfall map around Wednesday/Thursday depending on the timing of the system.

So in summary, we’re looking at two more winter storms this week. The first one could produce significant/crippling ice from just north of DC up to the PA border, and the second one has the potential to do something similar to last Wednesday’s storm. No breaks for the East Coast this winter!

Mid-Atlantic – The Week Ahead (Jan 23-30)

It’s a cold start to this week as we enter another period of highly uncertain weather. We started this morning with lows in the teens, and we could be just as cold (if not colder!) tonight. Clouds will start to move in on Monday well ahead of our next potential storm system, which could still be a number of different things. Everything from a big snowstorm to lots of rain to an out-to-sea miss is possible with this system. The general consensus has been a mess of wintry precipitation and rain for the southern and eastern parts of the region as it moves through the Southeast/Gulf of Mexico and into the Mid-Atlantic coastal region. Precipitation is expected to move into the southern parts of the region Tuesday night as the precipitation spreads to the northern parts of the region late Wednesday morning.

Temperatures will run below normal after this storm moves out of the region on Thursday, but a brief warm up to near normal to above normal temperatures is in the forecast for Friday and Saturday as a weak storm system moves through the Great Lakes and Northeast, which will help draw warmer air up from the south/southwest. Some light rain and snow showers will be possible this weekend as the system’s cold front moves into the region, with lake-effect and upslope precipitation along the western side of the Appalachians.

Mid-Atlantic – The Week Ahead (Jan 16-23)

The first storm of the week will come up the East Coast and it will provide the region with some mixed precipitation Monday night before switching over to rain Tuesday morning. As this disturbance moves up the coast, another weak disturbance will bring light mixed precipitation and possibly some snow to the area on Wednesday. Neither event should prove to be too hazardous for most of the Mid-Atlantic, but some areas could receive up to an inch of snow or a tenth of an inch of sleet/freezing rain from the Wednesday system.

Thursday will provide a brief break in the action as a potent system moves in early on Friday. The GFS operational track would bring mixed precipitation changing over to snow into the region, with QPF expected to be around 0.1″-0.25″ for most of the area as the storm moves west to east. This would mean some sleet/freezing rain with about an inch of snow on top should it work out. However, this system is still highly variable and could change into one of many different things as we zero in on the storm track.

Behind Friday’s system will come cool and dry conditions, with lake-effect snow hitting the western side of the Appalachians once again. That should take us into early next week as a new system tries to push into the region around mid-week next week.

Mid-Atlantic – The Week Ahead (Jan 9-16)

A snowstorm looms on the horizon as we head into the week. As you can see from my previous post with the snowfall map, I expect much of the region to land 2-4 inches of snow, with areas of 1-3 inches in VA and NC and areas with higher amounts along the coast on the northern edge of the region. I expect DC to get about 2 inches, with Baltimore in the 3-4 inch range before all is said and done. The snow should start Tuesday afternoon/evening in the DC area and the accumulating snow should end Wednesday morning (with light snow/flurries possible for a short period thereafter). The western Appalachians could continue to see snowfall going into Friday behind this system.

Ahead of this system we will continue to see seasonably cool weather tonight and tomorrow, with windy conditions on Wednesday and Thursday as temperatures continue to sit below normal. Winds will weaken at the end of the work week as an area of high pressure builds in and gives us fair conditions Friday and Saturday (with highs in the 40s possible on Saturday and Sunday). An upper-level trough will build back into the region at the start of next week, with another complicated setup involving two pockets of energy that could interact and bring precipitation to the region as early as next Sunday. This next storm has the opportunity to be one of several things for the region, from a light rainmaker to a bigger snow producer, so its evolution will be watched during the second half of the week for better certainty pertaining to the outcome of this system.

Mid-Atlantic – The Week Ahead (Jan 2-9)

We start the new year with a mild and wet couple of days, but a dry and somewhat near-normal temperature pattern will move in place of it through most of the week. Behind the cold front that recently passed through the region, skies will become mostly clear through Wednesday.

A low pressure system diving in from the Great Lakes will bring us a chance of rain/snow showers Friday morning through early Saturday, but it will be hard to get more than 1-2 inches of snow east of the Appalachians, with light snow/rain working as far south as central Virginia and southern Maryland. Areas further north (PA/NJ) and the western side of the Appalachians could see 2-4″ of snow from this system, with locally higher amounts. I’ll post an update for this storm as the time gets closer.

Following this system, we will see windy conditions and lake-effect snow on the windward side of the mountains Saturday and Sunday. We will return to below normal temperatures, much like what we saw at the start of last week. More cold and dry weather is in our future as we go into the second week of January.

Mid-Atlantic – The Week Ahead (Dec 26 – Jan 2)

The hit-or-miss coastal storm appears to be mostly a miss for those west of I-95 as the storm system makes its way up the East Coast today and into tomorrow. Right now the storm is basically using I-95 and DCA as its “pivot-point” as it strengthens and turns towards a more northerly trajectory. it really is a fascinating storm to watch unfold on the radar. The snow should move out of the region tonight, leaving behind 3-6 inches of snow east of I-95, with locally higher accumulations of 5-9 inches in parts of eastern Maryland and Delmarva.

Looking into the work week… the cold will hold on for a few days behind this system as Monday through Wednesday are forecast to be below normal. The gusty winds will hang around until Tuesday night, but relief is on the way! The second half of the week will feature a gradual warm up to above normal temperatures as a low pressure system develops over the mid-country and draws warm air up from the Gulf.

Thursday through Saturday should be rather nice in the region, with mild temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s and party to mostly cloudy skies (aside from a slight chance of rain on Thursday). The storm system in the mid-country will lift north and east into the Great Lakes and eastern Canada, and the trailing cold front will pass through the region next Sunday. Ahead of the cold front, scattered showers and maybe even a few rumbles of thunder are possible Saturday into Sunday. The region will cool down a bit behind the cold front going into the start of the work week next week, but not to the brutally-cold levels that we have been experiencing time and again this month.