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mid-atlantic weekly forecast

Mid-Atlantic – The Week Ahead (Oct 31-Nov 7)

Winds will begin to subside tonight as we start to get cooler again. Temperatures this week will generally be below average, which is likely a trend that will prevail over the next couple of months, with occasional warm shots between extended periods of cooler weather. The first snow flakes for D.C. could be seen this week as a coastal storm forms around mid-week. The models are still having a tough time on precipitation timing and placement, but it looks like the region should get a healthy dose of rain late Wednesday night through Thursday. On the back end of this system, cooler air and lingering moisture could bring some light snow into the region, with some accumulation expected on the western side of the Appalachians through the second half of the week.

This mid-week system will be very hard to predict as two pockets of energy, one lifting from the Southeast and one diving in from the Northern Plains, collide over the Mid-Atlantic region. How these two pockets of energy evolve and interact will be crucial in bringing precipitation to different parts of the region.

As this system lifts to the north and east, northerly winds will keep the region on the cooler side over the weekend. Another low pressure system could form off of the East Coast late next weekend, which could bring some wintry precipitation to the coastal areas as we head into next week.

The summer-like conditions are finally over. It’s time to prepare for winter.

Mid-Atlantic – The Week Ahead (Oct 24-31)

A period of warmer weather is in store for the Mid-Atlantic as we head into this week, but thunderstorms and severe weather could impact the region this week as the atmosphere tries to prime The Big One for the region. A subtropical ridge of high pressure over the Southeast will force several systems to lift north before reaching the Mid-Atlantic this week, but it may only be a matter of time before one storm can punch through and unleash its fury.

As low and high pressure systems move quickly across the country, the weather will fluctuate throughout this week and into next week. We will experience a period of above normal temperatures through mid-week, with northwesterly winds behind a cold front bringing a shot of cooler air into the region on Friday before temperatures begin to warm back up to slightly above normal over the weekend.

Depending on the timing of a cold frontal passage Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the Mid-Atlantic, with an isolated severe thunderstorms possible. Pre-frontal cloud cover could be an issue, with less daytime heating and more stable mid-levels hindering severe potential. The second half of the week will feature sunny skies as an area of high pressure moves in from the west. A shallow disturbance could increase cloud cover and bring some showers to the northern parts of the region late this weekend. I have a sneaking suspicion that the storm coming early next week could pack a surprising punch, given the favorable wind shear and decent mid-levels. Dry air at the surface will be the big What If as this storm evolves over the Mid-Atlantic.

Mid-Atlantic – The Week Ahead (Oct 17-24)

This is an idea I thought of earlier this week, which is an attempt to get more regional stuff into the site. I will also be posting it at the Forty South Weather Forum, which is a regional forum for people who live on the East Coast near/below the 40N latitude line (down to the Carolinas). The discussions will cover the following general area:

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A mixed bag of fall weather is in store for the region this week as an upper-level trough resides over the region through the work week. A dry “cold” front will move through most of the region this evening and overnight before stalling out near the NC/VA border. Despite the frontal passage, temperatures are not expected to drop off Sunday night going into Monday. A weak area of low pressure along the stationary front will begin to form on Monday, which will induce mostly cloudy skies and light rain in different parts of the region Monday night through Wednesday.

A low pressure system will work across Canada around mid-week, and the southern edge of the cold front could bring mostly cloudy skies and light rain to the northern half of the region on Thursday. An area of high pressure will start to move into the area following the frontal passage on Friday, which will provide the region with mostly sunny skies Friday and Saturday. Most of the region should remain dry on Sunday, but some light showers are not out of the question over the northern parts of the region as another weak disturbance passes to the north.

All-in-all, the region should see normal temperatures through the work week, with some variability as the various fronts and systems move over the region. Weak above normal temperatures are expected to work into the region over the weekend as southerly flow returns on the back side of the area of high pressure.

I hope you like fall weather, because we’re in for a big spoonful of it this week.