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summer

Summer 2012 (JJA) temperature forecast – First look

There may be wintry weather in the forecast, but it’s about that time of the year to take a look at what summer may bring us.

Here’s the summer composite:

Temperatures are close to -1F along the West Coast.

The monthly breakdown:

Forecasts are based on the 1981-2010 normals.

METHODOLOGY:

I grabbed some rough ENSO analogs this year that featured a La Niña winter with warm temperature anomalies in the U.S. and southern Canada. These analogs show a weakening Niña going into the summer months, which is the general consensus between the long-range models. I made adjustments to the temperature forecast based on current the soil moisture and forecast precipitation (summer precip. map getting released tomorrow), and that’s pretty much it. Keeping it simple this summer.

ANALOGS:
in [year (weight)] format

2000 (more)
1999 (more)
2008 (less)

RISKS:

The south-central and eastern U.S. could be warmer given the ongoing drought conditions from the southern Plains across the Southeast. The western Southwest could be cooler if the -PDO/-PNA combo. becomes a bigger player.