verification
Winter 2011-2012 forecast verification
This was an ugly forecast… pretty much the exact opposite of what actually happened. There was virtually no blocking this year (I was relying on blocking for the cold pattern), and a fairly persistent and strong trough over Alaska prevented any sort of real, long-lasting cold from entering the U.S. DJF temperature forecast: F December [...]
Snowfall Verification for Feb 19
While my first two maps left much to be desired, I finally got the storm zoned in on my final forecast: The southern edge of the system did a bit better than expected east of the mountains as the snowfall rates were able to overcome the above freezing surface temperatures. The northern edge of the [...]
Snowfall Verification for Feb 10-11
What a strange storm this was… The three-part storm that I was expecting to be a two-parter. First, the snow in central MD over-performed Friday night as temperatures were just cool enough to allow snow to accumulate more quickly. The second part, the squall line, went as expected as accumulations of a dusting to a [...]
Snowfall Verification for Feb 8
Another headache-inducing storm with poor rates, boundary layer issues and overdone QPF amounts: The verification wasn’t as bad as I thought it would be. I still got the general idea right, but was off in some key areas east of the mountains. The northern extent of 1+ inch accumulation in NJ was a bit surprising, [...]
Snowfall Verification for Feb 4-5
The verification on this one was rather interesting… some odd shapes/placements of the snow totals: The front-end of the system over-produced and the back edge under-produced, with some front-end banding boosting totals in central MD. Lighter rates and above-freezing temperatures kept the totals down elsewhere. Overall, I had the right idea, but with a warm [...]
Snowfall Verification for Jan 21
This was an interesting one to watch unfold… Cold air damming allowed for more snow at the onset of the storm than what I was expecting, which resulted in broader 1-2 inch coverage east of the mountains in central VA, MD, DC and southern NJ. This also allowed the freezing rain and sleet to [...]
Snowfall Verification for Dec 7-8
Quite a trying forecast, but overall it wasn’t a complete loss. Verified the mountain areas and highest totals fairly well, but the more heavily populated areas left much to be desired. Looking back, I could have been less generous with the 2-4 inch range in northern MD and southeastern PA, but other than that [...]
