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what to watch fore(cast)

What to Watch Fore(cast) – Mar 28 – Apr 4

Highlights:

A mess of storms in the East – Forecasters and weather models alike are trying to wrap their collective heads around a series of systems which could bring a variety of precipitation patterns to the eastern U.S. by the end of the week.

The cold pattern tries to end – The cold will ease off going into early next week as above normal temperatures take its place across the South and the Southeast.

Very warm in the west – Much above normal temperatures will sit over the western U.S. during the second half of the week before belows return over the weekend.

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Discussion:

The NAM appears to be in another world when compared to the GFS and ECMWF models going through mid-week. The models offer three rather different solutions in how to handle a series of three low pressure systems that will impact the eastern U.S. in quick succession Tuesday through Saturday. Right now it looks to be mostly rain, with the potential for a small area to see relatively big snowfall accumulation on the order of 6-12 inches. Whether or not any of that will verify will have to be determined in the coming days.

After this string of systems moves out of the East, a massive surge of warm air will form over the West during the second half of the work week. This ridge of warm air will translate into the East at the beginning of next week, which will hopefully start a prolonged period of near normal to above normal temperatures from the Southern Plains through the Southeast, southern Midwest and southern Mid-Atlantic. The northern U.S. may miss out on the prolonged warmth and head back into normal to below normal conditions after the upper-level ridge subsides a bit.

More on the regional impacts of these chilly storms in the East as the pattern becomes clearer.

What to Watch Fore(cast) – Mar 14-21

Highlights:

Early storms, then warm and tranquil in the East – After a storm system makes its way through the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic today and tomorrow, an upper-level ridge will build over the Southeast that will provide warm and dry conditions for the second half of the week.

Very warm, with record heat? – The second half of the work week will showcase much above normal temperatures in the eastern two-thirds of the country, which will provide multiple days of very warm and possibly record-breaking temperatures.

Stormy, snowy Pacific Northwest – Storm after storm will roll over the Pacific Northwest this week, bringing plenty of rain and mountain snow.

Plains severe risk Sunday/Monday – Potent upper-level energy moving in from the Southwest could trigger widespread severe storms Sunday and Monday (exact timing up for debate) in the Plains and eastern U.S.

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Discussion:

A low pressure system will move from the Southeast to New England over the next couple of days, which won’t cause much of a stir for most as weaker thunderstorms along the cold front and some snow on the northern end does nothing spectacular. Behind this system will be a rapidly building upper-level ridge, which will keep the eastern two-thirds of the region quite warm for most of the week. The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will be fairly dry while the ridge is overhead and storm systems pass to the north. This ridge could bring record-setting warmth to the central and eastern U.S. as it builds and progresses eastward.

Upstream of the ridge will be an active trough in the West, which will bring a lot of rain and snow into the Pacific Northwest. Some areas could get precipitation every day between now and next Monday (and beyond!). One of these systems is expected to dig into the Southwest and kick out into the Plains early next week, which could bring widespread severe storms to the Plains and areas east Sunday into Monday. Timing these kinds of systems can be rather tricky, so there needs to be some room for adjustment as we get closer to the event. It looks like it could be quite a significant storm if the thermal instability decides to cooperate.

What to Watch Fore(cast) – Mar 7-14

Just the highlights for now… I’ve been working on getting a new place to live, which is why the blog has slowed somewhat recently.

Highlights

Another soaker in the East – A storm system that is shaping up to be quite similar to the Sunday/Monday storm we just had will be moving through the eastern parts of the country Wednesday into Thursday.

Plenty of rain/snow in the Great Lakes – After the Wednesday system, another system will move in from the west for another shot of rain and snow Friday into Saturday.

Severe storms in the Southeast – A round of severe weather is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday in the Southeast.

Late severe in the Plains – A low pressure system will develop over the Central Plains Sunday and Monday, which will bring the risk for severe weather to Tornado Alley at the beginning of next week.

What to Watch Fore(cast) – Feb 22-28

Not doing a full discussion this week… storm tracks for Big Storm #1 and #2 will have to be monitored for their impact in the Mid-Atlantic states. The Friday storm could be frozen precipitation, heavy rain and/or strong thunderstorms for the DC area! More on that as the details get clearer. Arkansas through Pennsylvania will be a big concern for widespread flooding by the beginning of next week as both of the big storms put down significant precipitation totals in that region.

Highlights

West is cold and stays cold – A strong push of cold air from western Canada will keep the West much below normal through most of the week. The Northern Plains will also get in on the very cold temperatures.

Plenty of snow in the Pacific Northwest – The cold temperatures will provide a good atmosphere for the Pacific Northwest to finally get the big snows they have been waiting all winter for.

Big storm #1 – Severe storms in the Southern Plains Thursday and in the Southeast on Friday, with snow in the Central Plains, Midwest and Northeast.

Big storm #2 – A warmer and further north system, with severe in the Central/Southern Plains Sunday moving into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Monday. Back-end snow for the Central Plains, Midwest and (maybe) Northeast.

What to Watch Fore(cast) – Feb 14-21

Highlights:

Eastern warm up part two – After topping out near 70F in parts of the Mid-Atlantic, the East will see another, even stronger warm up this Thursday and Friday before a mostly-dry cold front moves through.

Unsettled Midwest – Rain moving through Thursday-Friday and a rain/snow storm system on Sunday-Monday will keep conditions rather damp in the Midwest during the second half of this week.

Snow in the West – 1-2+ feet of snow is possible in the western mountains this week as far south as central CA and the Four Corners region as a trough digs into the West.

High and dry in the Southeast – A subtropical high over the Southeast will keep the area enveloped in warm and dry conditions through most of the week.

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Discussion:

A persistent subtropical ridge over the Southeast and an upper-level trough over the West will set up an interesting week in weather as the pattern shift brings a welcome relief from the cold to the eastern half of the country. After topping out in the mid 60s to lower 70s on Valentine’s Day, the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast look to go even warmer this Thursday and Friday as winds from the south and west pump warm air into the eastern U.S. This weekend should bring near normal temperatures to most of the East, but even that’s better than the -5 to -10 anomalies the East has been seeing lately. The subtropical ridge will keep storm systems from entering the Southeast for most of the week, so a mostly sunny and dry pattern will keep conditions rather pleasant in that region (though isolated afternoon showers are certainly possible during the second half of the week).

An upper-level trough will take a hold of the West, bringing plenty of cold and snow with it. the Mountain West could see snowfall accumulations of two or more feet this week as several systems dig into the region. As these storms trek east, they will lift northeastward into the Midwest and southeastern Canada. This will mean wet and possibly stormy weather from the Plains up through the Northeast. While this week looks pretty quiet in terms of thunderstorm activity, next week could be a different story.

What to Watch Fore(cast) – Feb 7-14

Snow threat forecast for the Thursday storm coming later!

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Highlights:

A shot of snow early in the Apps – A quick round of 2-4″+ will move up the western side of the Appalachians into the Northeast Monday and Tuesday

Lake-effect machine lives again – Wednesday and Thursday will bring a good round of lake-effect snow to the Great Lakes, which could result in another foot or more of snow in places that have already exceeded their yearly normals (especially in Upstate NY).

Messy mid-week system – A winter storm will be putting down snow from the Southern Plains eastwards through the Southeast and into the southern Mid-Atlantic. Totals won’t be too high to the east, but the affected Plains states could see 6″+ accumulations.

Weekend warm up in the East – A nice February thaw period will start this weekend across the South and East, which should continue through most of next week.

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Discussion:

Storm #1 is heading up through the eastern U.S. right now as it tracks into eastern Canada. This storm has an inland low and is developing a coastal low, and these two together will produce some snowfall over the Northeast over the next day or so. Widespread areas of 2-4″ of snow accumulation are forecast for the western Appalachians through the Northeast. Along the coastal areas in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, it looks like it will be mostly rain or drier.

Storm #2 is diving into the Plains, and will develop and swing into the Southeast by late Wednesday. This storm could be a real winter storm for the Southern/Central Plains as widespread snowfall of 4-8″ and localized amounts of 12″+ are possible in Oklahoma and Kansas starting late Tuesday and going through Wednesday. This storm is forecast to weaken a bit as it moves into the Southeast, but a band of 2-4″ of snow is still possible through Tennessee, Kentucky, the Carolinas and southern Virginia as it pushes off the East Coast on Thursday. The snow could fall as far south as central Alabama and Georgia.

Another round of cold air will take over Wednesday and Thursday in the East, but change is on the way! Our friend the sub-tropical ridge will develop over the Southeast and it will change the pattern up for awhile as the eastern half of the U.S. experiences near normal to above normal temperatures this weekend and through most of next week. This thawing period may not be permanent, however, so enjoy it while it lasts!

What to Watch Fore(cast) – Jan 31 – Feb 7

Highlights:

Blockbuster snow storm – A wide swath of heavy snow extending from Oklahoma to Maine on the order of 6-12″+, along with crippling freezing rain, will rock the Midwest and Northeast tonight through Wednesday.

Weekend coastal storm – A storm that could once again “thread the needle” and produce significant snowfall (2-4″+) in the Mid-Atlantic is on the table for Saturday and/or Sunday.

Big cool down in the mid-country – A strong area of high pressure will dive in from Canada and introduce very (record-breaking?) cold into the Plains mid-week.

Even more rain in the Southeast – The weather pattern seems desperate to alleviate the Southeast drought conditions as yet another storm system is progged to develop in the Southeast next Monday.

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Discussion:

So when I said that last Wednesday’s storm could be the biggest population-wise… I was wrong. Sources estimate that this week’s storm could impact 100 million people. Simply an incredible storm.