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what to watch fore(cast)

What to Watch Fore(cast) – Dec 6-13

Doing this Monday to Monday now…

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Highlights:

Cold and windy in the East – Much below normal temperatures will sit over the eastern U.S. throughout the week. Combined with windy conditions Mon-Wed, it’ll be a bitter start to the week.

The lake-effect continues – The cold air and stiff westerly/northerly winds has caused lake-effect snow storms in the Great Lakes region, and should continue through the first half of the week.

Warmth in the West – On the flip-side of the coin, the western U.S. will be relatively warm as an upper-level ridge sits over the Southwest.

Weekend storm in the East – While the details are far from certain, there is a strong signal that a storm system will rapidly develop over the mid-country around Friday and will move into the eastern U.S. Sat-Mon. This system has the potential to provide a healthy dose of wintry weather to parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

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Discussion:

La Nina is starting to really show its form this week as it has over the last several days. A cold connection with western Canada will stretch across the Northern Plains and into the eastern U.S. through most of the week, with a slight alteration in the East over the weekend as we see a new storm system develop. The cold air will be trapped over the eastern half of the nation, with some areas in the Midwest and Southeast seeing -10F to -15F anomalies through Friday. This cold air will be accompanied by brisk westerly and northerly winds Mon-Wed, which will make conditions pretty raw. It will also keep the lake-effect machine cranking as the Great Lakes sits under lake-effect warnings as locally significant snowfall is possible. A clipper system will bring some additional snowfall to the northern U.S. during the second half of the work week.

Meanwhile, an amplified upper-level ridge will reside over the Southwest throughout the week, which will keep the Southwest in the above normal temperature category. It will also keep the southern border states very dry as storm systems track across the Pacific Northwest.

A significant pocket of upper-level energy is expected to dive into the mid-country around Friday and rapidly develop into a strong low pressure system over the weekend. This will bring rain and snow to the eastern half of the nation. The models are having a tough time getting a handle on this system, so I will post an update on the event when it gets closer (Thu/Fri). It looks like a big rain producer for the East Coast, with a wintry mix over the Appalachians and snow in the Midwest. It’s looking like it will track over the Midwest and Southeast Saturday, moving northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic Sunday and into Monday. There is also a chance for this system to be a severe weather producer, so that will have to be carefully monitored for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic as the situation becomes clearer.

What to Watch Fore(cast) – Nov 29 – Dec 5

Highlights:

Severe weather in the East – Severe storms with plenty of wind damage and isolated tornadoes are expected now until Wednesday morning/afternoon across the Southeast and East Coast.

Much needed rain – While severe storms aren’t necessarily the best way to get rid of a drought, the Mon-Tue system will help put a small dent into relieving the drought conditions in the Southeast and southern Midwest.

Quiet mid-country – A lull in the weather pattern will keep life easy through the middle of the country this week, with a weak disturbance late this week being the only blip on the radar.

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Discussion:

Not this week… too much stuff happened today 😀

What to Watch Fore(cast) – Nov 22-28

Highlights:

Severe risk in the Midwest – Ongoing storms continue to produce severe weather tonight, but another threat for severe weather will come mid-week.

Wet Thanksgiving in the East – Much of the East Coast will have cloudy skies and rain (with some snow further north at night) this Thursday.

Very cold in the West – The western half of the country will be stuck with much below normal temperatures through the work week.

New pattern setting up? – Models are suggesting a change in the pattern as things evolve this week and next week.

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Discussion:

Low pressure systems have been struggling to push into the Southeast due to a recurring ridge of high pressure over the Southeast, which has caused the lows to lift northward before reaching the Appalachians and the East Coast. This scenario will likely get played out for the next few systems that roll through the country (including today’s system and tomorrow’s developing systems). This storm track will allow for severe weather to occur along the systems’ cold fronts, which would give the U.S. a nice boost to the overall severe wind/hail/tornado counts before the end of the year.

This pattern may be consistent through at least the first week of December or until we do end up seeing that first real push of much below normal temperatures along the Eastern third of the country. With the models coming up with a different long-range solution every day, it will be hard to determine exactly when until it’s but a scant five days out.

The system developing in the mid-country tonight and into tomorrow will be a big rainmaker in the East on Thursday, meaning a lot of us will be out playing football in the mud instead of a dry field. It will be a good day to stay inside and enjoy family, friends, food and football in front of a cozy fireplace. After that, we’ll see a cool-down with lake effect rain and snow possible off of the Great Lakes through Saturday. Areas W/WSW of the Lakes could see some good snowfall totals out of this week.

A persistent upper-level trough over the West will keep things rather cold there this week. 1-3 additional feet of snow could get added to the mountains in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle could even see a little more accumulation to go with the 2 inches of snow they already got this week!

What to Watch Fore(cast) – Nov 15-21

Highlights:

Early soaker in the East – A low pressure system will bring widespread rain to the eastern third of the nation today through Wednesday.

Lots of snow for the Pac. Northwest – A couple of low pressure systems will draw cool air into the Pac. NW and the mountains will see significant amounts of snow.

Warm again in the East this weekend – Another mostly sunny and warmer than normal weekend is expected along the East Coast.

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Discussion:

A low pressure system that is currently over the southeast and southern Midwest will push north over the next couple of days, resulting in widespread rainfall for the eastern third of the nation. Some isolated severe weather will be possible tonight and tomorrow, but should not be anything significant. Widespread rainfall of 0.5-1.0+ inches will work up through the East Coast through Wednesday night. Following this system, a weak disturbance will bring isolated rain and show showers into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday night through Thursday night as it pushes eastwards towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast. The snow should stay north of the Mason-Dixon, except in areas of higher elevation.

A pair of disturbances moving over the Pacific Northwest this week will pack a punch as cold air seeps down from Canada, providing cool enough temperatures for big snowfall. The Pac. NW mountains could receive 1.5-3 feet of snow this week.

As the pattern calms over the eastern half of the nation, a subtropical ridge of high pressure will sit over the Southeast this weekend, providing the eastern half of the region with slightly above normal temperatures and mostly sunny skies. It should be another mild and pleasant weekend for the East.

What to Watch Fore(cast) – Nov 8-14

Highlights:

Snow in the Northeast! – A cut-off low is bringing snow to parts of southern New England and New York State today as places like Bridgeport, CT and Albany, NY pick up accumulation.

Quiet in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast – An area of high pressure will keep the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast sunny and dry through Saturday and possibly Sunday.

Two shots of rain to the Plains – A weakening system will bring light rain to the Northern and Central Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday as another system develops further south and brings rain and thunderstorms to the Central and Southern Plains late Thursday into Saturday.

Cooler West – A broad upper-level trough will keep the West below normal through most of the week.

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Discussion:

A very persistent cut-off low that has lingered just off the East Coast for several days is drawing precipitation into New England and New York State, which has some snow associated with it. So far today, Bridgeport, CT has broken it’s snowfall record for this date as 0.4″ accumulates, and Albany, NY has received over 1.3″ of snow. Parts of the Hudson Valley region have received two or more inches of snow from this system, and that’s not even in the mountains! The rest of the East Coast will be sunny and relatively mild this week as an area of high pressure sits over the region. A system working into the region over the weekend could bring some rain with it on Sunday, but much of the coastal areas will likely stay dry.

A weakening low pressure system currently over the Rockies will move into the Northern and Central Plains Tuesday, which will provide these areas with some rainfall. Another pocket of energy will dive in behind this system, and will rapidly develop over the Central and Southern Plains Thursday as it presses east. Areas of moderate to heavy rainfall are possible, especially in the Central Plains, late Thursday through Friday as the precipitation moves into the Midwest and Southeast Saturday. This system will lift to the northeast during the middle of the weekend, and should weaken before any significant precipitation can make it to the Appalachians. Severe weather with this system cannot be ruled out in the Plains, but there is little to no chance of having a big outbreak with this system.

All of the systems coming into the mid-country this weekend will help reinforce an upper-level trough in the West, which will keep pulling cooler air down into the region. Below normal temperatures are expected from the West Coast to the Rockies through most of this week. Despite the systems, precipitation should remain on the lighter side in the West through the rest of the week.

What to Watch Fore(cast) – Nov 1-7

Highlights:

Summer cancel in the East – After warmer weather brought an extended summer to the East Coast, cold air will dominate this week’s temperatures.

Nor’easter? – New England could get hit by a blast of rain and winter weather during the second half of the week as a coastal storm moves up the East Coast.

Hot in the West – A ridge of high pressure will sit over the Southwest U.S. this week, bringing much above normal temperatures to most of the West Coast, the Rockies and the Northern Plains.

Deep Freeze in the Southeast – Much of the Southeast will see lows in the 30s, with some areas going below freezing Friday and through the weekend.

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Discussion:

“Cold” will be the word of the week along the East Coast as prolonged below normal temperatures break the hot streak that began way back in March. November is forecast to be slightly below normal in a lot of major cities in the East, which would be a first for most since the early spring. Aiding these cooler temperatures is a developing low pressure system, which will meander across the Southeast tomorrow and Wednesday. The upper-level trough associated with this system will allow a pocket of energy to dive down through the Midwest and develop a coastal storm during the second half of the work week. This system has some Nor’easter potential, and could definitely bring some snow and rain to New England.

Behind this coastal system, cool air will pool into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. The Deep Freeze is likely to take place in these areas, with lows dropping into the 30s. Sub-freezing lows could reach into central Alabama and Georgia Friday through Sunday as clear skies and calm winds allow for massive radiational cooling.

While the East turns into an icebox, the West will go the opposite direction and warm up to much above normal levels this week (+8 to +15 F). Sunny skies and downsloping winds under a ridge will keep things relatively toasty from Cali all the way up to Central Canada as the cold tries to undercut the ridge in the Southern Plains.

Models are indicating that a progressive pattern will set up once again across the U.S… perhaps it’s time again to call for some powerful systems to roll through the country in weeks 2-3 of November. Our severe weather outbreaks are not done!

What to Watch Fore(cast) – Oct 25-31

On the road home from the Richmond area… went to test out the storms, but nothing happened. Grabbed some random scenery shots and that was pretty much the day. We got to test out Jason’s recent repairs on the long drive and everything turned out well.

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Highlights:

Epic system over the mid-country – A powerful low pressure system with the ability to break lowest-pressure records will quickly deepen over the next couple of days. A severe weather outbreak is imminent in the Midwest!

Pacific Northwest gets several shots of precip. – Several low pressure systems will work their way into the western U.S. this week, with this weekend’s system gathering potential to bring more severe weather to the East.

Warm mid-country – Warm air continues to surge northward from the south, which will give the middle half of the country above normal temperatures through most of this week.

Two shots of lake-effect possible – Lake-effect rain and snow showers could form behind the mid-week system and behind a clipper system this weekend.

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Discussion:

Skipped due to lots of storm chasing.