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what to watch fore(cast)

What to Watch Fore(cast) – Oct 18-24


A progressive pattern – Several storm systems will move across the country this week. Could these systems be priming the atmosphere for an epic late-season storm?

Heat returns to the South – A subtropical high will draw warm Gulf air into the South and East late this weekend and into next week.

Severe threat in the Plains – A developing low pressure system could bring severe weather to the Central and Southern Plains Thursday and Friday.

Lake effect snow returning? – There is a chance for lake effect rain and snow across the Great Lakes region later this week.


The weather pattern will be shifting wildly over the next two weeks as progressive storm systems move across the country. With wild fluctuations, wild storms are more likely, and we will start to see the beginning of that soon as a cut-off low over the Southwest moves into the Plains and brings severe weather to the region Thursday and Friday. This system will tap Gulf moisture and heat, which will work into the South this week and spread into the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Midwest this weekend through the first half of next week.

A series of potent systems will start coming from the Pacific Northwest this weekend, providing much of the northern and eastern parts of the country with above normal rainfall next week. These systems will be something to closely monitor for their Mid-Atlantic chase potential as the time gets closer. The synoptic setup next week actually looks very similar to early spring, in which the Southeast can see it’s biggest severe weather outbreaks. However, a lack of upper-air instability will keep severe storms on the down-low as we finish up with the month of October.

The Great Lakes region to see their first real shot at lake effect rain and snow during the second half of the work week, but any snow accumulation will be light and during the night before melting during the daytime hours. A sign of things to come? This forecaster says yes! It’s just about that time for lake effect to really start cranking away, and the Great Lakes just needs one good arctic blast to send the snow flying.

What to Watch Fore(cast) – Oct 11-17

Endless sleep on Sunday and storm chasing Monday = A late What to Watch Fore(cast). I’ll be sure to make it up with many, many pictures. Hopefully some will be awesome. Also, I’ll badger Jason until he puts some of his pictures up here.


Another coastal storm in the East – A low pressure system will hang off the East Coast during the second half of the work week, keeping conditions somewhat cool and cloudy.

Work-week heat in the West – A ridge of high pressure will bring above normal temperatures to most of the West Tuesday through Friday.

Rain in the Southeast – A weakening system will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms into the Southeast Tuesday through early Thursday.

What’s Hurricane Paula doing? – Paula will likely stay in the Caribbean through the work week, and there is a low chance that it could make a break for the South Florida Coast before a front pulls it to the east later on.


An upper level trough will dig into the Mid-Atlantic around Wednesday and stall just off the East Coast, allowing for coastal development that could linger in the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through the first half of the weekend. Underneath and behind it, cloudy conditions and northwesterly winds will keep things rather cool in the East.

An area of high pressure will be building into the West through mid-week before weakening and shifting eastwards towards the end of the work week. By Sunday, this ridge will work into the Southern Plains and Southeast, bringing northerly winds and below normal temperatures into the Midwest and Southeast at the start of next week.

Before the ridge can move into the Southeast, a stubborn cut-off low over the South will slowly work its way over the Southeast before weakening and getting pushed out by a cold front which will push through the Southeast on Thursday. There won’t be much precipitation with this system, but the drought-stricken Southeast could use every drop they can get.

Hurricane (microcane?) Paula is holding in the Western Caribbean as it gains category 2 status. This slow-moving tropical system will get scooped up by the cold front that’s passing through the Southeast and should lift out into the Atlantic early next week. There is little chance that the eye will make U.S. landfall, but Southern Florida will be monitored for a potential landfall.

What to Watch Fore(cast) – Oct 4-10

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Hot and dry in the North Country – An area of high pressure will keep the Northern Plains relatively hot and dry this week.

Cool and rainy in the Southwest – A cut-off low will bring clouds, rain and cool temperatures to the Southwest throughout the work week.

Near normal after a cool start in the East – The East Coast will be cool over the next few days as a cut-off low lingers over the region. As it moves out, sunny and seasonal weather will move in.

Frigid start in the Southeast – The next couple of days will be chilly in the Southeast as lows fall into the upper 30s to mid 40s throughout most of the interior.


The weather pattern will be changing slowly during the first half of this week as an omega block (trough-ridge-trough pattern) sits over the country. The cut-off low over the eastern U.S. will lift out of the region late in the work week, which will allow the upper-level ridge to slowly move east and eventually break down sometime next week. The ridge of high pressure will keep the North Country relatively warm and dry this week as the warmer conditions slowly spread over to the East Coast this weekend. The cut-off low over the East Coast will bring below normal temperatures to the East through mid-week. This cool air is especially noticeable in the Southeast, where the drier air is allowing lows to fall into the upper 30s to mid 40s throughout most of the interior Southeast. Closer to the coasts, the cooler temperatures are less dramatic.

Another cut-off low will anchor itself over the Southwest throughout the week, bringing rain and cooler temperatures to the region. The cut-off low will try to escape the region as it lifts into the Rockies at the end of the work week, only to get blocked by the upper-level ridge as it stops just short of the Central Plains.

Given the volatility of the current weather pattern, anything beyond the end of the week is somewhat uncertain. The block appears to break down early next week, which will allow for a very dynamic and likely interesting period for weather enthusiasts.

What to Watch Fore(cast) – Sep 27 – Oct 3

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Hot and dry in the West – Very warm temperatures during the work week will provide some areas with record-breaking heat from the West Coast to the Rockies.

Wet week with flooding in the East – As the eastern U.S. gets pummeled by rain early this week, another round of heavy rain is expected during the second half of the work week.

Cool-down in the East – This weekend will be the beginning of a cool period in the East, with several days or more of below normal temperatures on the way.


A large upper-level ridge produced record-breaking heat in the West, and above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. Some places in California hit their all-time highest temperatures today, producing numbers in the 108F-115F range. The worst of the heat is over along the Southwest Coast, but double-digit temperature anomalies are still in store for much of the west.

After a moderate dose of rain in the Mid-Atlantic and a good soaking in most of the Southeast, a short break in the rain will give way to another batch of moisture as a subtropical system converges with a stationary front that is just off the East Coast. This rainfall will retrograde back into the East Coast, missing parts of the southeast while providing moderate to heavy rainfalls in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Another 1-3+ inches of rain could come from this next system.

An area of high pressure will move into the Midwest and Southeast over the weekend, which will bring a reinforcing shot of cool air into the East. This could produce several days of temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal in the Midwest and Southeast, with -3 to -5 temperature departures in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The core of the cold will extend from this weekend into mid-week next week.

What to Watch Fore(cast) – Sep 20-26


The calm before the storm – This week remains relatively quiet in the tropics as the focus moves to storm formation in the Caribbean. The models are strongly suggesting that the 11-15 day period could be memorable for the U.S. (see the post from 9/19).

The heat continues – The eastern U.S. will be getting very warm temperatures this week, with the warmest temperature anomalies shifting into the western U.S. by the end of the week.

Continual rain in Texas and the Desert Southwest – Rain will be ongoing through most of the week in Texas and parts of the Desert Southwest as an upper-level trough brings a storm system into the region during the second half of the week.

Storm systems slam into the Pacific Northwest – A series of low pressure systems will bring lots of rain and cloud cover to the Pacific Northwest, especially for areas near the coast.


As Igor and Julia move off to the east and while anything that forms in the East Atlantic this week will stay well to our east, we can take a collective breath before next week’s forecast develops a tropical system or two in the Caribbean. The models have been consistent with developing a storm in the Caribbean that could make landfall on the U.S. in 2-2.5 week’s time. Updates will come as things become clearer.

The eastern U.S. will get a blast of heat over the next few days as a ridge of high pressure in the Southeast draws warm air up into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This heat will subside back to normal temperatures over the weekend as a cold front moves into the Southeast. Parts of the Northeast could receive a good amount of rain from this late-week system, but most of the Mid-Atlantic is supposed to miss out of the much-needed precipitation.

The heat will shift towards the west as an upper-level ridge builds over the region going into the weekend. This burst of heat will bring summer back into the region as we begin the first week of fall, which starts on Wednesday. This heat will be temporary as an upper-level trough pushes into the Pacific NW next week and the ridge shifts back to the east.

Texas and parts of the Desert Southwest will get daily rainfall through mid-week as monsoonal moisture and a low pressure system approaching from the west bring a decent amount of precipitation to the region. Further north in the Pacific Northwest, low pressure systems continue to roll into the region off of the Pacific, bringing clouds and rain into the region throughout the week. The southern and eastern extent of this rainfall will be cut-off not too far inland as the ridge builds into the region over the weekend, but the West Coast could see significant amount of rainfall of 1-4+ inches if the moisture arrives as expected.

What to Watch Fore(cast) – Sep 13-19


Tropics in full gear – Igor is a strong category 4 hurricane in the central Atlantic, with Tropical Storm Julia further to the east. There is another area of interest in the Caribbean, which could form into a named system later this week.

Variable weather in the East – A disturbed weather pattern will bring several shots of wet weather into the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic.

Heat cranks away in the South – An area of high pressure will keep the South above normal throughout the week as the summer heat continues.

Cool air working into the northern Plains – A low pressure system diving south from northern Canada will bring below normal temperatures into the northern Plains through most of the week.


Igor is continuing its westward track early this week as it gets ready to recurve to the north and east during the second half of the week. It will continue to be a major hurricane through the first half of the week, but its strength will be in question during the second half of the week depending on how quickly it moves north. The current forecast will keep Igor well away from the U.S. coastline, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Igor ended up a bit further west than expected (though it would still be offshore). Julia is currently near the Cape Verde Islands and is expected to stay east of Igor throughout it’s lifespan, eventually recurving into the North-Central Atlantic.

A series of low pressure systems will bring cooler conditions overall to the Northeast as rain and afternoon thunderstorms roll across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today and during the second half of the week. These systems will entrain cold air down from northern Canada into the northern Plains during the second half of the week. Fall is coming to the North!

Meanwhile, a sub-tropical high is parked over the southern U.S., and it will keep most of the South, from the Desert Southwest to the Southeast, under warm temperature anomalies throughout the week. Areas along the Gulf of Mexico that experience onshore flow will have closer to normal temperatures.

What to Watch Fore(cast) – Sep 6-12

NOTE: This was written yesterday, but has been copied to this site to add content. From now on, this site will be exclusive in having the discussion part of the post.


Hermine performs magic in the Gulf – A “surpise tropical storm” has popped up in the western Gulf of Mexico, but it will quickly move inland near the TX/Mexico border and dissipate. Already a strong tropical storm, Hermine could become a Cat. 1 before landfall.

More activity in the Atlantic – As Gaston tries to refire before heading into the Caribbean, more tropical waves coming off the African Coast could yield even more tropical systems this week.

Cool blasts trying to end the summer heat in the East – The transitional weather pattern brought a shot of cool, dry air into the region over the weekend. More systems that are expected to do the same thing are on the way. However, rainfall with these systems is rather scarce in the southern Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Southeast.

Regional drought worsens in the Mid-Atlantic – While some areas have had wet hot-spots this summer, a good portion of the Mid-Atlantic remains fairly dry as this week’s forecast calls for sunshine through the work week.


Somewhat surprisingly, Tropical Storm Hermine has quickly formed in the western Gulf of Mexico and is intensifying rapidly in the short amount of time it has left before it makes landfall. Even more surprisingly, the NAM seemed to capture the storm’s inception the best this time around, but one must take into account that it’s been making fantasy storms in the Gulf all summer. Hermine already has an eye feature on radar as the circulation tightens in the storm:

Meanwhile, the remnants of Gaston continue to drift westward towards the Caribbean as it struggles to reform into a Depression. The models aren’t doing much with it right now, but more tropical waves coming off of the African Coast could produce more tropical cyclones later this week.

Storm systems producing active weather in the northern Plains and Midwest will keep bringing cool shots of air to the East Coast after short warm-up periods this week, but the dry air in place over most of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast will keep rain at bay as some areas get worse into drought. Downsloping off of the Appalachians has kept it particularly dry in VA and northern MD, which is starting to turn into a giant brown patch. Drought conditions also exist close to the coast, where plant life in parts of MD and most of NJ are beginning to feel the strain. There is a chance for some rain this weekend as the remnants of Hermine and a low pressure system work through the region, but how much rainfall the drought-stricken areas get may be over-hyped on the the GFS.

(Source: U.S. Drought Monitor)

We’ll be seeing more active weather over the next month as the tropical season hits full gear (the peak of the season is September 10th) and the fall transition creates more dynamic weather patterns across the U.S.