winter

New Page: NWS Snow Maps

For years, the NWS snow forecast maps have been sometimes hard to find and inconsistent from WFO to WFO. I decided that it’s time for one web site that has links to ALL of the NWS snow forecast maps across the CONUS. I also displayed many of the Mid-Atlantic maps directly on the page for […]

Winter 2014-2015 (DJF) Forecast

I like to keep my seasonal forecasting short and sweet, so here it is: Reasoning: – Latest model guidance and ENSO trends suggest DJF will likely be a weak El Nino. – +PDO to support ridging in the western U.S. and troughing over the Midwest/eastern U.S. – +AMO could help keep the Southeast milder (read: […]

Winter Storm Threat: Mar 16-17 (Final Call)

Not much change from the last map… mostly some expansion of the 4-8″ contour over the mountains and cutting back totals a little bit on the parts of the fringes. I don’t trust how bullish the models are on the snow maps because it looks like temperatures may end up a bit warmer than the […]

Winter Storm Threat: Mar 16-17 (Initial Call)

With what is hopefully our last snow threat for the season in the greater D.C. area, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the ultimate track of the system in addition to how wet it is. Lower than normal confidence with this forecast, which favors the Euro more than the GFS. My forecast […]

Winter Storm Threat: Mar 2-3 (Final Call)

UPDATE March 2nd, 2pm EST: After seeing the latest model forecasts and trends, I would probably shift the 4-8″ and 8-12″+ contours south by about 15-20 miles. — Shifting everything a bit south from the initial forecast and added locally 12″+ wording for the mountains. Accumulations are for snow and sleet, though it will be […]

Winter Storm Threat: Mar 2-3 (Initial Call)

Meteorological spring is here, but winter isn’t done with us yet. Most of the region will actually start off as rain, but a very strong cold air mass will push southward, bringing the low-level air below freezing and changing areas over to freezing rain and sleet before finally transitioning to snow. The models are handling […]

Winter Storm Threat: Feb 14-15 (Final Call)

A trough will traverse the Ohio Valley today and will start to take on a negative tilt as it reaches the East Coast, with a nice vort max developing over the Carolinas that will allow for a rapid strengthening of the surface low once it moves off the coast. Cold air aloft and the upper-level […]