winter
Winter Storm Threat: Apr 22-24 (only/final call)
This storm is going to be mostly an Appalachian event, with heavy, wet snow creating problems with falling branches and trees and power outages in the areas forecast to get 2-4 inches of snow or more. The bulk of the snow will fall on Monday as the coastal low deepens and works into eastern [...]
Late season snow storm in the Appalachians
A strong coastal storm will develop tomorrow into Monday, and this low will actually retrograde inland, eventually making its way into central NY. This late season storm is expected to bring 6-12 inches or more to the higher elevations of the central Appalachians, with lower totals in the lower elevations as the snow battles against [...]
Winter 2011-2012 forecast verification
This was an ugly forecast… pretty much the exact opposite of what actually happened. There was virtually no blocking this year (I was relying on blocking for the cold pattern), and a fairly persistent and strong trough over Alaska prevented any sort of real, long-lasting cold from entering the U.S. DJF temperature forecast: F December [...]
Winter Storm Threat: Mar 4-5 (only/final call)
Here’s my only/final forecast for the snow that will accumulate today into tomorrow: Boundary layer temperatures are once again the main concern with this disturbance once you get east of the mountains. There is not a lot of model agreement regarding the QPF and surface temperatures with this system as it moves across the [...]
Snowfall Verification for Feb 19
While my first two maps left much to be desired, I finally got the storm zoned in on my final forecast: The southern edge of the system did a bit better than expected east of the mountains as the snowfall rates were able to overcome the above freezing surface temperatures. The northern edge of the [...]
Winter Storm Threat: Feb 19 (final call)
Following the latest model trends, it looks like another bust for the DC folks: Finally a decent snow storm for the southern areas, but the DC region will miss out on the good totals once again. A coating to an inch seems like the best forecast for DCA at this time.
Winter Storm Threat: Feb 18-19 (second call)
Everything trended south in the last 24 hours… So what happened? The main northern stream energy that was supposed to interact/guide the southern energy creating the snow storm has actually moved out ahead of the storm. This changes a few things… 1. The boundary layer will be able to get cooler and drier ahead [...]
