winter

Winter Storm Threat: January 23-24 (Initial Call)

Lots of things to keep tabs on as this next system moves up through the region tomorrow night into Saturday. Temperatures from the surface all the way up to around 750-800 mb will be cutting it close, but the strengthening low and good rates on the front end of the system will help things along. […]

Winter Storm Threat: January 21 (Only/Final Call)

More clipper fun for the Mid-Atlantic, only surface temperatures won’t be so wonderfully cold this time around. Marginal temperatures at the surface and around 900-925 mb as far north as I-70 (maybe even further north?) along with mostly light precipitation hurting snow chances. Most or all of the snow will also fall during daylight hours. […]

Winter Storm Threat: November 26 (Final Call)

Well, the model trends over the last 24 hours were not in the direction I though they were going to go, so I had to cut back the forecast along I-95 and make some smaller adjustments on the western edges of the contours. Overall, things have shifted slightly warmer across much of northern VA, DC, […]

Winter Storm Threat: November 26 (Initial Call)

A hectic day before Thanksgiving is in store for many in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Toughest challenges are 1) finding that crucial rain/snow line, and 2) honing in on QPF totals, especially when considering the deformation band that’s expected. It will be a heavy, wet snow that will at least initially struggle to accumulate on […]

New Page: NWS Snow Maps

For years, the NWS snow forecast maps have been sometimes hard to find and inconsistent from WFO to WFO. I decided that it’s time for one web site that has links to ALL of the NWS snow forecast maps across the CONUS. I also displayed many of the Mid-Atlantic maps directly on the page for […]

Winter 2014-2015 (DJF) Forecast

I like to keep my seasonal forecasting short and sweet, so here it is: Reasoning: – Latest model guidance and ENSO trends suggest DJF will likely be a weak El Nino. – +PDO to support ridging in the western U.S. and troughing over the Midwest/eastern U.S. – +AMO could help keep the Southeast milder (read: […]

Winter Storm Threat: Mar 16-17 (Final Call)

Not much change from the last map… mostly some expansion of the 4-8″ contour over the mountains and cutting back totals a little bit on the parts of the fringes. I don’t trust how bullish the models are on the snow maps because it looks like temperatures may end up a bit warmer than the […]