Somewhat higher confidence in the QPF totals brought about an expansion of the 2-4″ area. The GFS/NAM continue to suggest a snow hole in the northern VA and DC region, which remains a slight risk to the low side. Overall, I think risks are more to the high side, with localized 2-4″ totals possible within [...]
Certainly a new breed of winter storm for this winter as we now have plenty of cold air in place, but moisture will be lacking in most areas. The good news is most of the Mid-Atlantic will see high snow ratios around 15-20:1, giving the event more bang for the buck. Risks are more to [...]
A quick update before I head into work… shifted the forecast further south overall and tightened up the contouring in areas that have slightly higher confidence than the initial forecast. This results in a virtual no-show north of DC aside from some flakes in the air to a dusting. Southern VA into northern NC will [...]
Here comes the first notable snow event for the southern Mid-Atlantic this winter! A powerful upper-level vort. max will push through the region tomorrow, bringing strong dynamics with it that will help create a period of moderate to heavy snowfall. The snow will start in the morning hours in the higher elevations and will work [...]
Very tough call on the southern edges of the contours as sleet and freezing rain make an appearance as far south as northern MD (not including the mountains). Some locally higher totals of 4-8″ are possible, and I put a 4-8″ contour area in the spot where I think that is most likely to occur. [...]
I did end up bringing the contours further south from DC eastward. Not really anything to add to yesterday’s discussion. I’m leaving to go up north now where there’s 18 inches of snow on the ground.
Another quick-turnaround forecast as the next system looks to bring widespread 1-4″ totals to the Mid-Atlantic, with higher totals in the central Appalachians. Marginal boundary layer temperatures and initial surface winds out of the southeast makes finding that 1″ boundary a challenge yet again. Luckily, the upper-level temperatures are cooperating more this time around, so [...]