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winter

Winter Storm Threat: January 22-24 (Initial Call)

For those linked here from other sites, you can see my updated forecast here: Winter Storm Final Call

What can I say? This is a classic setup for feet of snow and possible/probable blizzard conditions across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. If you liked February 2010, then you’re gonna like this.

20150122-24_MAsnow_initial

The epicness that is this storm system will start on Friday and end Saturday night/Sunday morning. For the greater DC area, I’m expecting snow to start accumulating in the late afternoon or early evening on Friday. Once it starts, it won’t stop for quite some time, lasting through Saturday in most spots.

Temperatures won’t be frigid, so I-95 and areas south should see more of a dense, wet snow, while areas further north and west get into the drier, fluffier snow. Mixing issues with sleet and rain don’t really become a problem until you get south and east of I-95. The I-95 cities are expected to be at or below freezing at the surface throughout the storm.

On top of all this, strong winds will generate blizzard or close to blizzard conditions mainly in the DC/MD/Delmarva region. Persistent onshore flow will result in fairly high storm surge and beach erosion.

Get home early on Friday, because you won’t want to be out once it starts. Don’t plan on doing anything that involves going outside Friday night or Saturday… unless it’s sledding or a snowball fight.

Winter Storm Threat: March 4-5 (Only/Final Call)

Can this be the last one, please? Near normal highs are going to feel like heat waves this month.

20150304-05_MAsnow_final

Most uncertainty is going to come from the changeover from rain to sleet to snow. A slower cold push and/or prolonged sleet could cut down on totals. Regardless of the fact that there’s more downside than upside, it should be a fun storm. Once the changeover to snow does occur, the snow rates should be pretty good, so I’m not too worried about getting accumulations started in the more southern areas when the changeover isn’t until after sunrise. A layer of sleet to start should help the initial snow accumulations as well.

Winter Storm Threat: February 26-27 (Only/Final Call)

It’s time for the southern folks to finally cash in this season. Some spots in North Carolina and southeastern Virginia are expected to get as much snow as they typically get in a year, so this should be a fun storm for them. I battled a bit in the placement of the 1″ and 2″ contours on the north edge of things, as there is a wide range of solutions in that department still. The rain/snow line across North Carolina is another big hurdle, but it seems the warm nose will be around 850mb, which made sorting it out on the models easier.

20150226-27_MAsnow_final

I expect a couple of 12+” reports out of this in North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. The northern edge of the 1-2+” has equal risks of busting high/low.

Winter Storm Threat: February 21-22 (Only/Final Call)

Lots of uncertainty with this system. How much precip. falls as snow before the changeover, timing of the changeover, rates during the daytime hours, etc. The only thing that’s not really in question will be the surface temperatures at the start of the storm. Cold, cold, cold.

20150221-22_MAsnow_final

Models overall show a little more potential to get higher totals than lower totals east of the Appalachians.

My brain is done. k bye.

Winter Storm Threat: February 16-17 (Final Call)

Cut back on totals in central and eastern Pennsylvania a little bit, and tweaked 8-12″ contour ever so slightly. On the south end of things, I lowered the snow+sleet totals in North Carolina east of the Appalachians and into far southeastern Virginia. Still a solid 5-10″ event around the greater D.C. region.

20150216-17_MAsnow_final

Would have been interesting if people didn’t have Monday off… onset around D.C. is during the afternoon rush hour. At least we get to avoid that fiasco this time around. Should end near or slightly before daybreak for most. Enjoy your fresh pow pow.

Winter Storm Threat: February 16-17 (Initial Call)

Holy crap, a decent storm around D.C. where the rain/snow/mix line won’t be a concern! It’s a miracle.

So the biggest question at this point is QPF. There are some really juiced-up forecast models, and some not so much. Either way, snow ratios start getting good around D.C. and points north… talking 15:1 or better (20:1 along/north of the Mason-Dixon?).

20150216-17_MAsnow_initial

Other questions include how far north the 1+” totals get, and how much snow/sleet occurs in North Carolina and southeastern Virginia before they change over to rain/freezing rain (yes, sleet is included in the snow totals in that region).

The 8-12″ band is a little ambitious, but I feel like the more aggressive play is the correct one at this point. I think a 50/50 blend between the wetter models and drier models results in something close to this, with ratios taken into consideration.

I’ll issue a quick final update tomorrow morning.

Winter Storm Threat: January 25-27 (Only/Final Call)

Not going to go into details because I have spent way too much time looking at this storm between work and home. Also, I’m prepping for a snow chase in New Jersey, so that has taken up much of my afternoon.

20150125-27_MAsnow_final

A bit more conservative than the Euro and NWS overall. The lack of support of big totals from some of the other models in the Mid-Atlantic gave me pause. There’s a lot of moving parts to this system, so it’s really anyone’s game still. I just hope I’m not terribly wrong.