winter

Winter Storm Threat: Feb 12-13 (Initial Call)

A big coastal storm will be ramping up in the Southeast Tuesday into Wednesday and will deepen along the Mid-Atlantic Coast Wednesday into Thursday, bringing significant snowfall to a large portion of the East Coast. My initial forecast leans mostly towards the Euro model, but there is some compromise with the GFS solution, which is […]

Winter Storm Threat: Feb 5 (Only/Final Call)

Heavy snow is expected across the northernmost parts of the forecast region, with lesser amounts the further south you go as snow at the onset of the storm battles with warming mid-levels as the storm pushes through the Mid-Atlantic. Timing of the changeover to sleet/freezing rain/rain will be critical from central PA roughly from I-80 […]

Winter Storm Threat: Feb 3 (Final Call)

Brought things northward with this update due to that pesky “warm” layer aloft. This is a considerably tough forecast across the southern areas near the 1″ line as the models generally have isothermal temperatures along the freezing line between about 850mb-750mb. Temperatures at the surface are also around freezing, with sub-freezing temperatures in most of […]

Winter Storm Threat: Feb 3 (Initial Call)

This is one of the more classic snow storms that we’re used to in the Mid-Atlantic: Temperature issues, wet (low ratio) snow and a mostly N+W of DC event. And of course there’s Philly getting in on the good stuff again like they have been basically all season. The most uncertainty with this forecast lies […]

Winter Storm Threat: Jan 28-29 (Only/Final Call)

Well, I *was* going to be lazy and sit this storm out, but today I decided what the heck, let’s make a forecast. It’s a little late… I hate to make a forecast when the event is already underway, but it is what it is. Totals include any sleet that may fall near the coast. […]

Winter Storm Threat: Jan 21 (Final Call)

I strongly believe there will at least be a band (if not continuous then broken) of 8-12″ somewhere from this storm. In this update, I placed it where I think it will be most likely, but would not be surprised if it shifted north or south. It is really hard to pin down the area […]

Winter Storm Threat: Jan 21 (Initial Call)

This storm has really come together on the models in the last 12-18 hours. The vort max has just enough of a dig and neutral/negative tilt to pop a surface low and draw some moisture into the disturbance, which is something these past clippers were missing. There should be some nice snowfall ratios around DC […]