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winter

My winter forecast (temperature only for DJF)

Not your typical Nina scenario… anomalies are in degrees Fahrenheit.

EXPLANATION:
I’ll just start off by saying that I’m not big into long range forecasting. I do it as part of my job at work, so I figured since I put in the effort to do it there I may as well show you all the results. As an aside for verification, my analogs did fairly well in September (I finished at/near the top amongst the forecasters at work), and they also caught on to the October transition that we are currently seeing.

METHODOLOGY:
When finding my analog years, I like to keep things simple. I used years that went from Nino to Nina status and found the ones that had similar seasonal temperature anomalies to this year, particularly JJA. Better analogs were weighted more in order to match up the temperature patterns more closely.

ANALOGS:
in [year (weight)] format

2005 (more)
1995 (more)
1988 (normal)
1983 (normal)
1998 (less)