Before I begin, I’d like to state that this forecast has fairly low confidence as we sit in the 3-4 day window with the coming coastal storm. There is still a lot of room for changes to the storm track and snow totals, so this forecast is to be taken with a grain of salt.
With a whole mess of rain and wintry weather from a wet inland solution via the 12z ECMWF, a rain/snow mix and precipitation cut-off closer to the coast on the 12z NAM, and a mostly out to sea but snowy coastal areas 12z GFS solution, which one are we supposed to pick? Using the last 1.5 months as a guideline of which way to lean, I have gone with what is basically the GFS solution with a more inland track and a more amplified cut-off of the eastern (above freezing) side of the storm that more closely resembles the NAM solution.
Rain and mixed precipitation is a huge concern for the coastal and southern parts of the region, which is the main reason why my confidence in this forecast is low. There is a very narrow area of opportunity for higher amounts of snowfall, and while I have more confidence that there will be a narrow strip of higher totals, where that ends up being remains a mystery.
EDIT to add that yes I do think this is a rather bullish/ambitious forecast, but it is still a first call and there’s plenty of room for change.