New Project – U.S. Tornadoes
A little over a month ago, my friend Ian Livingston (@islivingston) started a new project that focuses on the past, present and future of tornadoes in the United States. He has brought me on board as the tornado threat forecaster for the site (www.ustornadoes.com), where I will be posting 1-7 day tornado forecasts every Monday and Thursday. I will also be posting special updates to the forecast if needed.
In addition to my forecasting responsibility, I am also doing some work on the web design as well as posting to the U.S. Tornadoes Twitter feed (@USTornadoes) and Facebook page.
Here is a look at the tornado forecast I wrote yesterday: http://www.ustornadoes.com/2012/03/15/tornado-threat-forecast-mar-15-21/
I will still be posting most of my material to this site, but you can also follow me on U.S. Tornadoes.
Winter 2011-2012 forecast verification
This was an ugly forecast… pretty much the exact opposite of what actually happened. There was virtually no blocking this year (I was relying on blocking for the cold pattern), and a fairly persistent and strong trough over Alaska prevented any sort of real, long-lasting cold from entering the U.S.
DJF temperature forecast: F
December 2011: F
January 2012: F
February 2012: D-
DJF precipitation forecast: D
Winter Storm Threat: Mar 4-5 (only/final call)
Here’s my only/final forecast for the snow that will accumulate today into tomorrow:
Boundary layer temperatures are once again the main concern with this disturbance once you get east of the mountains. There is not a lot of model agreement regarding the QPF and surface temperatures with this system as it moves across the region tomorrow, which along with the QPF uncertainty makes this a low confidence forecast. The early start time (being this afternoon) is to account for the ongoing snow showers along and west of the mountains.
Tornado Outbreak ongoing in the Midwest and Southeast
Multiple violent tornadoes are tracking across the Midwest to Southeast today as this High Risk event gets underway.
CLICK HERE for an animated GIF of the long-track debris ball in southern Indiana (image size 3.28 MB).
Here’s the latest SPC outlook:
UPDATE (6:45pm): Another long-lived debris ball went through West Liberty, KY. CLICK HERE for the radar loop (another large image).
UPDATE (7:45pm): Yet another long-lived debris ball… this one went through Salyersville, KY. CLICK HERE for large image goodness.
March 2012 temperature forecast
Another warm month is on tap for the eastern two-thirds of the country as we enter the start of meteorological spring:
Risks are to the warm side throughout the country as the “torch” continues. Many indices point towards warmth in the eastern US as you have a +NAO, +AO, -PNA, +WPO, and +EPO going into the first couple of weeks in March.
Mid-Atlantic Discussion – Feb 29, 2012
We end the last day of meteorological winter not with snow, but with severe as storms threaten the region for the second time within a week.
Currently, there are two tornado watches active in the region… one that extends into most of WV, and another that encompasses extreme southeastern WV and most of western VA.
Both watches are set to expire during the first half of the evening. The main concern with these storms is damaging wind, with isolated tornadoes possible and a low risk of severe hail. The main cluster of storms is moving through WV/VA now, but another cluster of storms is expected in the same areas in the early evening. Both of these clusters are expected to weaken as they get east of the mountains in the northern areas, but a risk for severe will continue into the overnight hours in southern VA and NC.
Mid-Atlantic Discussion – Feb 24, 2012
I can’t believe I haven’t done one of these since August… been too long.
The first real chance for severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic this year has arrived! Tomorrow’s looking increasingly promising for at least some severe wind threat in addition to an isolated tornado or two and maybe some hail. Strong post-frontal winds and brush fires are also risks with this system.
The latest models have been pushing out CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg in parts of the Mid-Atlantic from DC down to eastern NC tomorrow afternoon, which isn’t much, but for February it’s not too shabby. The low-level jet will also be roaring in southern VA and eastern NC, which strong thunderstorms could mix down to the surface. There is enough directional shear in the low-levels for a tornado threat in southeast VA and eastern NC, which is where I plan to storm chase.
Behind the front, dropping dewpoints and strong winds gusting to 50-60+ mph will bring a risk for brush fires to the region as well, especially in the areas that were north of the recent snowfall from last Sunday.
All of this will be going on during the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow, though winds will remain somewhat gusty going into Saturday.
Here’s the latest forecast from the SPC (click the image for their discussion):
