The calm before the storm – This week remains relatively quiet in the tropics as the focus moves to storm formation in the Caribbean. The models are strongly suggesting that the 11-15 day period could be memorable for the U.S. (see the post from 9/19).
The heat continues – The eastern U.S. will be getting very warm temperatures this week, with the warmest temperature anomalies shifting into the western U.S. by the end of the week.
Continual rain in Texas and the Desert Southwest – Rain will be ongoing through most of the week in Texas and parts of the Desert Southwest as an upper-level trough brings a storm system into the region during the second half of the week.
Storm systems slam into the Pacific Northwest – A series of low pressure systems will bring lots of rain and cloud cover to the Pacific Northwest, especially for areas near the coast.
As Igor and Julia move off to the east and while anything that forms in the East Atlantic this week will stay well to our east, we can take a collective breath before next week’s forecast develops a tropical system or two in the Caribbean. The models have been consistent with developing a storm in the Caribbean that could make landfall on the U.S. in 2-2.5 week’s time. Updates will come as things become clearer.
The eastern U.S. will get a blast of heat over the next few days as a ridge of high pressure in the Southeast draws warm air up into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This heat will subside back to normal temperatures over the weekend as a cold front moves into the Southeast. Parts of the Northeast could receive a good amount of rain from this late-week system, but most of the Mid-Atlantic is supposed to miss out of the much-needed precipitation.
The heat will shift towards the west as an upper-level ridge builds over the region going into the weekend. This burst of heat will bring summer back into the region as we begin the first week of fall, which starts on Wednesday. This heat will be temporary as an upper-level trough pushes into the Pacific NW next week and the ridge shifts back to the east.
Texas and parts of the Desert Southwest will get daily rainfall through mid-week as monsoonal moisture and a low pressure system approaching from the west bring a decent amount of precipitation to the region. Further north in the Pacific Northwest, low pressure systems continue to roll into the region off of the Pacific, bringing clouds and rain into the region throughout the week. The southern and eastern extent of this rainfall will be cut-off not too far inland as the ridge builds into the region over the weekend, but the West Coast could see significant amount of rainfall of 1-4+ inches if the moisture arrives as expected.