Igor is currently a category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 85 mph as it slams Bermuda with tropical storm force winds this morning. Don’t let the weakening in wind fool you… the swath of hurricane and tropical storm force winds is so vast that Bermuda will be inundated by Igor for a good 24 hours from the beginning of the event before tropical storm conditions will subside. This is quite a long time for those in the way of a tropical system. Good luck to all those out in Bermuda weathering the storm.
Looking into the future, another tropical wave is trying to form into a tropical system just off the coast of Africa, but this storm is forecast by the models to stay very, very far off to the east. The next real threat to the U.S. could form in the western Caribbean about 8-10 days from now. Both the GFS and ECMWF models have something forming in that area, but the upper-level pattern which would steer the storm is nearly the opposite in the 11-15 day period between these two models, which would greatly affect where this potential storm could make landfall. The only reason why I mention a storm this far out is because of the consistency the models have shown in developing a system in the Caribbean during this time frame, and it stands a chance of making a U.S. landfall. I will continue to monitor the situation with this system, but it remains so far out into the forecast that nothing can be certain.