Winter Storm Threat: Feb 12-13 (Final Call)

Only real notable adjustment for the final map was the expansion of the 12-18 contour and addition of locally 12+ over northern Maryland and into Pennsylvania. Expanded the 8-12 contour eastward slightly near I-95 and bumped the higher totals in North Carolina eastward a bit. Small changes to the western cut-off of the system as […]

Winter Storm Threat: Feb 12-13 (Second Call)

Not incredibly different from my initial forecast… still uncertainty with the low track, which could cause more/less sleet and rain along the coast and could move the western edge of accumulation west/east. Also have to watch that band on the west side of the storm for possible higher totals. Hard to tell if I should […]

Winter Storm Threat: Feb 12-13 (Initial Call)

A big coastal storm will be ramping up in the Southeast Tuesday into Wednesday and will deepen along the Mid-Atlantic Coast Wednesday into Thursday, bringing significant snowfall to a large portion of the East Coast. My initial forecast leans mostly towards the Euro model, but there is some compromise with the GFS solution, which is […]

Winter Storm Threat: Feb 13 (Only/Final Call)

Boundary temperatures and snowfall rates will be the two main things to watch tomorrow as a nice looking vort. max passes over the region. Precipitation will start off as rain for most/all of the region tomorrow, with the back end of the system changing over to a heavy, wet snow. The strong vort. max will […]

Radar watching – snow at two levels

Just wanted to post this as it is an interesting phenomena where you can see the low-level convective snow (the long and thin features oriented west-to-east) and the comma-head snow/clouds rotating around the Radar site:   The low-level convective snow is created as leftover moisture takes advantage of the steep low-level lapse rates behind the […]

Quick thoughts on tonight’s/tomorrow’s snow

This rain-changing-over-to-snow event has been the main snow event to watch over the past few days, and now it looks like it will come to fruition… at least for those from DC and points north as the tail-end of precipitation rolls through the region between 2-5am. The latest HRRR is putting down some light accumulation […]