Winter 2011-2012 forecast verification
This was an ugly forecast… pretty much the exact opposite of what actually happened. There was virtually no blocking this year (I was relying on blocking for the cold pattern), and a fairly persistent and strong trough over Alaska prevented any sort of real, long-lasting cold from entering the U.S. DJF temperature forecast: F December [...]
Radar watching – Bay- and ocean-enhanced snow
Some parts of the Mid-Atlantic have received and are still getting anything from light flurries up to a half inch of snow from bay-enhanced and ocean-enhanced snow this morning: Steep lapse rates right near the surface and a veering wind profile are allowing the low-level clouds to suck up moisture from the Atlantic Ocean [...]
Coldest morning of the season in the Northeast
A lot of locales in the Northeast are experiencing their first sub-zero lows of the winter, with temperatures as cold as -24F in Watertown, NY! (Yes, it’s -24, not -23. The software rounds the Celsius conversions oddly in some cases) A 1030mb high centered over southeastern Ontario is allowing for light to calm winds [...]
Quick thoughts on tonight’s/tomorrow’s snow
This rain-changing-over-to-snow event has been the main snow event to watch over the past few days, and now it looks like it will come to fruition… at least for those from DC and points north as the tail-end of precipitation rolls through the region between 2-5am. The latest HRRR is putting down some light accumulation [...]
Snowfall Verification for Dec 7-8
Quite a trying forecast, but overall it wasn’t a complete loss. Verified the mountain areas and highest totals fairly well, but the more heavily populated areas left much to be desired. Looking back, I could have been less generous with the 2-4 inch range in northern MD and southeastern PA, but other than that [...]
Winter Storm Threat: Dec 7-8 (final call)
Had to make some big changes in the northern areas… the boundary layer temperatures did not cool off as much as I thought it would on the models in addition to a quicker end to the snowfall. I think that a couple of areas will be able to top out just above 8 inches [...]
Winter Storm Threat: Dec 7-8 (first call)
Think 10/29 redux, only the temps and QPF line up a bit better for the changeover on the back-end: The upper-level vort. max is potent enough to create an area of strong dynamics along the back edge of the system, which will pull cooler air down to the surface and make it cool enough [...]
