Browse Tag

2012

Winter 2011-2012 (DJF) precipitation forecast

The Mid-Atlantic will struggle to get to near normal, but most should be able to edge into that category as the southeastern Mid-Atlantic goes drier than normal again.

As for snowfall, I expect the Mid-Atlantic to be near normal to slightly above normal (90-125%) throughout the region. I think the storm tracks will be similar to last winter, but the winter storms that hit the Southeast and brought anomalously-large snowfall totals to that region will be further north this year due to a weaker trough (and weaker -NAO). That would put the tracks through, or just south of, the Mid-Atlantic. These storms that we didn’t get last year will help boost the region’s snowfall totals, though each individual event may only drop 1-3 inches in most non-mountainous areas.

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This was last year’s DJF forecast and verification:

Winter 2011-2012 (DJF) temperature forecast – First look

Winter 2011-2012:

The monthly breakdown:

METHODOLOGY:

Used rough ENSO analogs (neutral ENSO to weak Nina summer going into weak/moderate Nina), coupled with NAO analogs based on low sun activity leading to -NAO in the winter. I also included -PDO to an extent, put all the factors together and weighted accordingly. Not all analogs fit the NAO/PDO correlations, but still fit most of the requirements.

ANALOGS:
in [year (weight)] format

1995 (more)
2008 (more)
1970 (normal)
2000 (normal)
1962 (less)
2010 (less)

NOTE: Anomalies are against 1971-2000 normals.