After yesterday’s mostly-failed setup in which tornadoes were more scarce than expected in the Deep South, much higher instability today will likely result in stronger discrete storms that can mature enough to become tornadic. The SPC is targeting the 00z-04z time frame as the most dangerous as the low-level jet picks up, meaning nighttime tornadoes will be a big concern.
The Deep South is no stranger to these after-dark tornado setups, and I agree with the SPC’s forecast. With moisture and energy available right next door in the Gulf of Mexico, all you need is a proper storm system to move through to create a tornado threat. The winds associated with this system are fairly strong, and now the CAPE/shear combo is balanced enough where supercells can more reliably become organized enough to produce tornadoes. There are already multiple classic-looking supercells in Louisiana that are tornado-warned, and it looks like the southern Mississippi Valley will be in for a long night.