Winter Storm Threat: Dec 21-23 (final call)
No major changes to the forecast, though I did decide to go a bit more aggressive with the totals in some areas. The most notable changes were in northern PA and southwestern NY, with an 8-12 inch contour added as lake-effect off of Lake Erie helps drive up totals. The back edge of the main [...]
Winter Storm Threat: Dec 21-23 (initial call)
Most if not all of the snow with this disturbance will accumulate well behind the cold front, with lake-effect snow bringing some respectable totals to western PA and WV. Most of the snow will fall Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. Low-level temperatures will limit accumulations across central and eastern PA. South and east of the [...]
Snowfall Verification for Jan 21
This was an interesting one to watch unfold… Cold air damming allowed for more snow at the onset of the storm than what I was expecting, which resulted in broader 1-2 inch coverage east of the mountains in central VA, MD, DC and southern NJ. This also allowed the freezing rain and sleet to [...]
Winter Storm Threat: Jan 21 (final call)
Following a southern trend of the models and recent temperature verifications compared to earlier forecasts, I have come up with this for my final forecast: The pink contour indicates where 0.1-0.25+ inches of accumulating sleet and freezing rain is possible. Some sleet will mix into the areas receiving over an inch of snow, and [...]
Winter Storm Threat: Jan 21 (first call)
A relatively weak area of upper-level energy will bring about some snow to the region on Saturday. The precipitation is expected to start out as snow for most, with some light sleet and/or freezing rain across the southern part of the pink contour. As the mid-levels warm, sleet and freezing rain will become dominant in [...]
Mid-Atlantic Discussion – Aug 21, 2011
It seems like I jinx our severe weather every time I make a post about it. We’ve been faring a lot better with the pulse-type storms than with any sort of organized system this summer, but unfortunately you can’t really chase pulsers since they almost always weaken before you can get to them… not to [...]
Winter Storm Threat: Feb 21-22 (final call)
The morning update: Temperatures are coming in colder than expected early across the northern half of the region as northerly winds take over. That means earlier/easier changeover to snow for many. This’ll be a fun one. EDIT: Need to add that I also made a slight adjustment to the time constraints to better fit [...]
