Winter Storm Threat: Mar 4-5 (only/final call)

Here’s my only/final forecast for the snow that will accumulate today into tomorrow:   Boundary layer temperatures are once again the main concern with this disturbance once you get east of the mountains. There is not a lot of model agreement regarding the QPF and surface temperatures with this system as it moves across the […]

Snowfall Verification for Feb 4-5

The verification on this one was rather interesting… some odd shapes/placements of the snow totals: The front-end of the system over-produced and the back edge under-produced, with some front-end banding boosting totals in central MD. Lighter rates and above-freezing temperatures kept the totals down elsewhere. Overall, I had the right idea, but with a warm […]

Winter Storm Threat: Feb 4-5 (final call)

Much better agreement on the models today. The main issues are still how warm the boundary layer is and how light the precipitation rates will be. I think plenty of areas SEE snow, but accumulations could be hard to come by outside of the higher elevations, so I cut back on my totals a bit: […]

Chasing a Possible Tornado Outbreak in NC today

Jason and I will be heading out to North Carolina around 8:00 this morning, and our target area that was picked 2-3 days ago is in the heart of the Moderate Risk area today, which includes a strong risk for tornadoes. A full chase log will be posted later today or tomorrow. It’s potentially going […]