Winter Storm Threat: March 4-5 (Only/Final Call)

Can this be the last one, please? Near normal highs are going to feel like heat waves this month. Most uncertainty is going to come from the changeover from rain to sleet to snow. A slower cold push and/or prolonged sleet could cut down on totals. Regardless of the fact that there’s more downside than […]

Winter Storm Threat: Mar 4-5 (only/final call)

Here’s my only/final forecast for the snow that will accumulate today into tomorrow:   Boundary layer temperatures are once again the main concern with this disturbance once you get east of the mountains. There is not a lot of model agreement regarding the QPF and surface temperatures with this system as it moves across the […]

Snowfall Verification for Feb 4-5

The verification on this one was rather interesting… some odd shapes/placements of the snow totals: The front-end of the system over-produced and the back edge under-produced, with some front-end banding boosting totals in central MD. Lighter rates and above-freezing temperatures kept the totals down elsewhere. Overall, I had the right idea, but with a warm […]

Winter Storm Threat: Feb 4-5 (final call)

Much better agreement on the models today. The main issues are still how warm the boundary layer is and how light the precipitation rates will be. I think plenty of areas SEE snow, but accumulations could be hard to come by outside of the higher elevations, so I cut back on my totals a bit: […]

Chasing a Possible Tornado Outbreak in NC today

Jason and I will be heading out to North Carolina around 8:00 this morning, and our target area that was picked 2-3 days ago is in the heart of the Moderate Risk area today, which includes a strong risk for tornadoes. A full chase log will be posted later today or tomorrow. It’s potentially going […]