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Winter Storm Threat: March 4-5 (Only/Final Call)

Can this be the last one, please? Near normal highs are going to feel like heat waves this month.


Most uncertainty is going to come from the changeover from rain to sleet to snow. A slower cold push and/or prolonged sleet could cut down on totals. Regardless of the fact that there’s more downside than upside, it should be a fun storm. Once the changeover to snow does occur, the snow rates should be pretty good, so I’m not too worried about getting accumulations started in the more southern areas when the changeover isn’t until after sunrise. A layer of sleet to start should help the initial snow accumulations as well.

Winter Storm Threat: Mar 4-5 (only/final call)

Here’s my only/final forecast for the snow that will accumulate today into tomorrow:

Boundary layer temperatures are once again the main concern with this disturbance once you get east of the mountains. There is not a lot of model agreement regarding the QPF and surface temperatures with this system as it moves across the region tomorrow, which along with the QPF uncertainty makes this a low confidence forecast. The early start time (being this afternoon) is to account for the ongoing snow showers along and west of the mountains.

Snowfall Verification for Feb 4-5

The verification on this one was rather interesting… some odd shapes/placements of the snow totals:

The front-end of the system over-produced and the back edge under-produced, with some front-end banding boosting totals in central MD. Lighter rates and above-freezing temperatures kept the totals down elsewhere. Overall, I had the right idea, but with a warm boundary layer and a weak system it’s always difficult to nail the accumulations. I’d give this forecast a B- for getting the general theme right within the oddly-placed snow totals.

Winter Storm Threat: Feb 4-5 (final call)

Much better agreement on the models today. The main issues are still how warm the boundary layer is and how light the precipitation rates will be. I think plenty of areas SEE snow, but accumulations could be hard to come by outside of the higher elevations, so I cut back on my totals a bit:

I also adjusted the start/end times to account for the snow currently falling in OH/PA.

Chasing a Possible Tornado Outbreak in NC today

Jason and I will be heading out to North Carolina around 8:00 this morning, and our target area that was picked 2-3 days ago is in the heart of the Moderate Risk area today, which includes a strong risk for tornadoes. A full chase log will be posted later today or tomorrow. It’s potentially going to be pretty epic.

Putting things into perspective, as of now there has been 6 deaths and 23 injuries from the tornado outbreak that occurred yesterday in the Southeast, and the threat for severe weather will be almost/just as significant today from central Virginia through Georgia. For those living in the risk area, please pay very close attention to the weather today, as these storms could form quickly and with very little warning, so do your best to avoid becoming another statistic in today’s severe weather.