Winter Storm Threat: Mar 5-7 (Final Call)
There were some detail changes due to adjustments in the storm track, which mostly affected central/northern PA, southern VA and the Delmarva Peninsula. Higher confidence in the higher snow totals brought some upscale changes to northern VA. It’s still a low confidence forecast overall, with both upside and downside risks across most of the impacted [...]
Winter Storm Threat: Mar 5-7 (Initial Call)
So here we are with another complicated setup and poor model agreement leading to a low confidence forecast. The good news is it looks like DC is finally going to get a decent storm! It only took until March… Anyway, right now it looks like the biggest risks are along the coast and in PA [...]
Winter Storm Threat: Mar 4-5 (only/final call)
Here’s my only/final forecast for the snow that will accumulate today into tomorrow: Boundary layer temperatures are once again the main concern with this disturbance once you get east of the mountains. There is not a lot of model agreement regarding the QPF and surface temperatures with this system as it moves across the [...]
Snowfall Verification for Feb 4-5
The verification on this one was rather interesting… some odd shapes/placements of the snow totals: The front-end of the system over-produced and the back edge under-produced, with some front-end banding boosting totals in central MD. Lighter rates and above-freezing temperatures kept the totals down elsewhere. Overall, I had the right idea, but with a warm [...]
Winter Storm Threat: Feb 4-5 (final call)
Much better agreement on the models today. The main issues are still how warm the boundary layer is and how light the precipitation rates will be. I think plenty of areas SEE snow, but accumulations could be hard to come by outside of the higher elevations, so I cut back on my totals a bit: [...]
Winter Storm Threat: Feb 5-6 (first call)
THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. Keep that in mind. There is a large amount of uncertainty given the different model runs both against each other and against themselves run-to-run. Surface temperatures will be a problem with this system, only compounding the forecast headaches heading into tomorrow night. I favored some phasing of the [...]
