Winter Storm Threat: Feb 5 (Only/Final Call)

Heavy snow is expected across the northernmost parts of the forecast region, with lesser amounts the further south you go as snow at the onset of the storm battles with warming mid-levels as the storm pushes through the Mid-Atlantic. Timing of the changeover to sleet/freezing rain/rain will be critical from central PA roughly from I-80 […]

Winter Storm Threat: Mar 5-7 (Final Call)

There were some detail changes due to adjustments in the storm track, which mostly affected central/northern PA, southern VA and the Delmarva Peninsula. Higher confidence in the higher snow totals brought some upscale changes to northern VA. It’s still a low confidence forecast overall, with both upside and downside risks across most of the impacted […]

Winter Storm Threat: Mar 5-7 (Initial Call)

So here we are with another complicated setup and poor model agreement leading to a low confidence forecast. The good news is it looks like DC is finally going to get a decent storm! It only took until March… Anyway, right now it looks like the biggest risks are along the coast and in PA […]

Winter Storm Threat: Mar 4-5 (only/final call)

Here’s my only/final forecast for the snow that will accumulate today into tomorrow:   Boundary layer temperatures are once again the main concern with this disturbance once you get east of the mountains. There is not a lot of model agreement regarding the QPF and surface temperatures with this system as it moves across the […]

Snowfall Verification for Feb 4-5

The verification on this one was rather interesting… some odd shapes/placements of the snow totals: The front-end of the system over-produced and the back edge under-produced, with some front-end banding boosting totals in central MD. Lighter rates and above-freezing temperatures kept the totals down elsewhere. Overall, I had the right idea, but with a warm […]

Winter Storm Threat: Feb 4-5 (final call)

Much better agreement on the models today. The main issues are still how warm the boundary layer is and how light the precipitation rates will be. I think plenty of areas SEE snow, but accumulations could be hard to come by outside of the higher elevations, so I cut back on my totals a bit: […]

Winter Storm Threat: Feb 5-6 (first call)

THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. Keep that in mind.   There is a large amount of uncertainty given the different model runs both against each other and against themselves run-to-run. Surface temperatures will be a problem with this system, only compounding the forecast headaches heading into tomorrow night. I favored some phasing of the […]