Much more aggressive with the totals this time around, but there is still more upside risk than downside to the forecast. I went with a rough 50/50 blend of the GFS and Euro, with some personal touches here and there. NAM’s still out to lunch with it’s QPF and snow totals, so I didn’t even [...]
Just going to start off by saying that forecast confidence is lower than normal. Miller B type storm will form up late tomorrow into Friday and will initially cause mixing/temp issues across the more southern areas. As the coastal intensifies, banding on the back edge of the system could bring locally higher totals from central [...]
Made some changes to bring things a bit further east in general. I took out the 4-8 inch contour due to uncertainties in the forecast, but I do think there will be localized 4-8″ totals in eastern PA and western NJ. Confidence in the forecast is normal to slightly below normal.
Here we go with another early start to winter… but early start for who, exactly? Well, the mountains already got a shock to the system last week as Sandy dumped as much as three feet or more of snow across West Virginia. This time around, it looks like the coastal areas will cash in more [...]
Quite a trying forecast, but overall it wasn’t a complete loss. Verified the mountain areas and highest totals fairly well, but the more heavily populated areas left much to be desired. Looking back, I could have been less generous with the 2-4 inch range in northern MD and southeastern PA, but other than that [...]
Had to make some big changes in the northern areas… the boundary layer temperatures did not cool off as much as I thought it would on the models in addition to a quicker end to the snowfall. I think that a couple of areas will be able to top out just above 8 inches [...]
Think 10/29 redux, only the temps and QPF line up a bit better for the changeover on the back-end: The upper-level vort. max is potent enough to create an area of strong dynamics along the back edge of the system, which will pull cooler air down to the surface and make it cool enough [...]