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Winter Storm Threat: January 6-7 (Final Call)

As the event is unfolding, time for a final update. A slight shift north and west, but overall similar thinking to yesterday’s forecast.

20170106-07_final

I think that there is a little more room for this to shift a bit further north and west compared to moving it south and east. The area of significant snowfall seems pretty locked in at this point, with concerns about mixing on the southern edge of the snow accumulation in the Carolinas.

Winter Storm Threat: January 6-7 (Initial Call)

A legit winter storm is finally coming to the southern Mid-Atlantic, but it probably won’t be a huge hit for D.C. residents as this suppressed storm system aims for areas south and east of I-95, instead of the usual jackpot areas.

20170106-07_initial

There is still a chance for this system to drift a bit more north and west, but for the past few days, forecast guidance has been pretty consistent in keeping any notable snowfall in the Southeast and in areas east of I-95 from Richmond, VA northward. Another concern is how much snow ends up falling over North Carolina, where some places will be battling with rain and a wintry mix before changing over to snow on the back end of the system. All-in-all, it looks like a solid hit for the more southern folks that get included in my snow forecast maps.

Winter Storm Threat: Mar 5-7 (Final Call)

There were some detail changes due to adjustments in the storm track, which mostly affected central/northern PA, southern VA and the Delmarva Peninsula. Higher confidence in the higher snow totals brought some upscale changes to northern VA.

It’s still a low confidence forecast overall, with both upside and downside risks across most of the impacted region.

Winter Storm Threat: Mar 5-7 (Initial Call)

So here we are with another complicated setup and poor model agreement leading to a low confidence forecast. The good news is it looks like DC is finally going to get a decent storm! It only took until March…

Anyway, right now it looks like the biggest risks are along the coast and in PA and southern VA. I’ll save some of the more intricate details for the final forecast, but there is going to be some serious issues with the rain/snow line in the lower-total areas to the south, with precip. shield concerns across PA, NJ and southern NY.

There is also some upside risk west and a little north of DC, where strong banding will likely occur somewhere in there. The other big question is with the coastal low track and whether or not the more northerly GFS and bring higher snow totals to PA/NJ northward or if the more conservative Euro wins out in those areas. In that case, I decided to lean a bit more towards the Euro with the lower totals.

Some strong, gusty winds are possible east of the mountains north of the VA/NC border.

Winter Storm Threat: Feb 7-8 (Initial Call)

Just going to start off by saying that forecast confidence is lower than normal. Miller B type storm will form up late tomorrow into Friday and will initially cause mixing/temp issues across the more southern areas. As the coastal intensifies, banding on the back edge of the system could bring locally higher totals from central PA to NJ, NY and maybe even down into northeast MD and northern DE. There’s plenty of risk in either direction, especially across central PA into NJ and NYC/LI.

I didn’t try too hard to figure out contouring based on strict temperature and boundary layer issue areas since there is not enough certainty to really go into that much detail yet. That’s a job that is best saved for tomorrow’s update.

Winter Storm Threat: Nov 7-8 (final call)

Made some changes to bring things a bit further east in general. I took out the 4-8 inch contour due to uncertainties in the forecast, but I do think there will be localized 4-8″ totals in eastern PA and western NJ. Confidence in the forecast is normal to slightly below normal.

Winter Storm Threat: Nov 7-8 (initial call)

Here we go with another early start to winter… but early start for who, exactly?

Well, the mountains already got a shock to the system last week as Sandy dumped as much as three feet or more of snow across West Virginia. This time around, it looks like the coastal areas will cash in more as those out west are left to deal with whatever remains of what they got last week. The latest model runs have (thankfully) converged on a somewhat reasonable solution for mid-week’s snow.

Despite the recent convergence, forecast confidence is still lower than normal as small shifts in the storm track could potentially lead to big shifts in the snow zone.

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