Just going to start off by saying that forecast confidence is lower than normal. Miller B type storm will form up late tomorrow into Friday and will initially cause mixing/temp issues across the more southern areas. As the coastal intensifies, banding on the back edge of the system could bring locally higher totals from central [...]
Made some changes to bring things a bit further east in general. I took out the 4-8 inch contour due to uncertainties in the forecast, but I do think there will be localized 4-8″ totals in eastern PA and western NJ. Confidence in the forecast is normal to slightly below normal.
Here we go with another early start to winter… but early start for who, exactly? Well, the mountains already got a shock to the system last week as Sandy dumped as much as three feet or more of snow across West Virginia. This time around, it looks like the coastal areas will cash in more [...]
Jason and I originally intended today’s chase to be more local to our homes in Montgomery County, MD, but as storms kept popping up to our south we kept dropping south with them. We initially crossed over into Virginia near Leesburg as a promising storm was moving into the area to our west. As that [...]
Another headache-inducing storm with poor rates, boundary layer issues and overdone QPF amounts: The verification wasn’t as bad as I thought it would be. I still got the general idea right, but was off in some key areas east of the mountains. The northern extent of 1+ inch accumulation in NJ was a bit surprising, [...]
Have to get this out now since I’ll be at work when the event starts!
One of the more promising events I’ve forecast this winter… Plenty of cold air aloft, but surface temperatures look to hurt the initial snowfall accumulations before either the rates get high enough of the surface temperature cools to the freezing mark. Higher elevations stand a better chance of snow (both for surface temperatures and [...]