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Winter Storm Threat: April 2 (Only/Final Call)

Almost didn’t make a snow map for this event, but I like the novelty of an April snow. At least most of the snow will fall during the early AM hours on the 2nd, so there won’t be much of the Sun’s rays to kill the rates in the Mid-Atlantic. However, precipitation starts as rain south of the 40N line, and is all rain by the time you get to D.C. and points south. Surface wet-bulb temperatures will be above freezing within the southern edge of the 2″ or less zone, which along with warm ground temperatures will drastically cut into snow totals.

I would certainly think that risks run toward getting less snowfall than forecast rather than getting more. I could see a few spots on the southern edge getting more, especially in the higher elevations, if rates can be really heavy for a few hours.

April 2014 East Coast Chases

I’ve had a few opportunities to chase storms in April, and I grabbed a handful of images and uploaded them to Flickr. They’re in my 2014 East Coast Chases album, which I will keep updating with images if/when I get more.


I head out to the Plains for two weeks… IN two weeks! Same crew as last year, but with my own new-to-me personal vehicle (2010 GMC Terrain) instead of a rental. Like last year, I will be posting daily blog on the U.S. Tornadoes site, and I’ll have a post with the link and details later on.

Winter Storm Threat: Apr 22-24 (only/final call)

This storm is going to be mostly an Appalachian event, with heavy, wet snow creating problems with falling branches and trees and power outages in the areas forecast to get 2-4 inches of snow or more.

The bulk of the snow will fall on Monday as the coastal low deepens and works into eastern PA and central NY. Areas east of the one inch line could see some minor snow accumulation as the rain changes over to snow during the tail end of the event. Snow totals in northeastern OH, western PA and western NY will get a boost from lake enhancement. Locally higher totals are possible in the highest elevations.

Late season snow storm in the Appalachians

A strong coastal storm will develop tomorrow into Monday, and this low will actually retrograde inland, eventually making its way into central NY.

This late season storm is expected to bring 6-12 inches or more to the higher elevations of the central Appalachians, with lower totals in the lower elevations as the snow battles against boundary layer temperature issues and warmer ground. Of course, higher snowfall rates could overcome these problems fairly quickly, so we’ll have to keep an eye on places like western PA and western NY as the storm develops to see just how much those areas might get.

The NWS is putting up Winter Storm Watches in the higher elevations and in some of the higher-impact low elevation areas for when the storm moves through late Sunday into Monday. Along the coast, widespread rain totals of 1-3 inches are in the forecast, which will help alleviate some of the drought conditions that have developed over the last several months.

Active week for severe weather in the Plains

Severe weather is expected every day this week in the Plains as several shortwaves work into the central U.S. and the large-scale trough pushes eastward. While some days could have problems with instability and capping, the wind profile will be at least somewhat favorable for rotating storms and severe weather in the Plains.

Here’s the SPC maps highlighting the greatest severe weather risk areas through Saturday, with the threat expected to continue into early next week.

April 3, 2012 Texas tornado videos

U.S. Tornadoes owner/co-author Ian and I have been compiling tornado footage from the outbreak in Texas today. We’re still adding to it, but so far we’ve found 16 videos!

You can view them on the U.S. Tornadoes blog:

It might take a few seconds to load due to pulling in the video previews from YouTube.

Here’s one of the videos out of Kennedale, Texas:

April 2012 temperature forecast

After record March warmth in many areas (except for the West Coast, with some areas receiving record snowfall either in daily values and/or for the whole month of March), we’ll be looking at another warm month. All of the warm signals were in place at the start of last month, but this month the signals are a bit more mixed as the weather pattern tries to change it up some. Still looking at a warmer than normal month overall for most of the U.S.

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