Very In-My-Back-Yard (IMBY) forecast, but since I’ve been out of town and not keeping up with the weather I can’t really make a nice snowfall forecast.
With so much uncertainty with the cut-off for the big snowfall totals, I will go with 3-6″ of snow for DCA and Montgomery County (65% confidence), with higher totals (including 10″+) in eastern MD and 2-4″ further west in places like Leesburg, VA. There is about a 25% chance that DCA and MoCo could see higher than 6 in., and about a 10% chance that they could see less than 3 in.
This will be an event that will have to be closely followed on radar to see where the significant snowfall line sets up. The difference of a few tens of miles could be all it takes to go from “meh” to “wow this is a lot of snow!”
Either way, it looks like this snow storm will put DCA in the above normal snowfall category for December (we’re only ~1.2″ short of normal at this point), which would be a great start to a La Niña winter in the Mid-Atlantic as they tend to have below normal snowfall totals for most of the region.