Winter Storm Threat: Feb 13 (Only/Final Call)
Boundary temperatures and snowfall rates will be the two main things to watch tomorrow as a nice looking vort. max passes over the region. Precipitation will start off as rain for most/all of the region tomorrow, with the back end of the system changing over to a heavy, wet snow. The strong vort. max will [...]
Winter Storm Threat: Feb 7-8 (Final Call)
Much more aggressive with the totals this time around, but there is still more upside risk than downside to the forecast. I went with a rough 50/50 blend of the GFS and Euro, with some personal touches here and there. NAM’s still out to lunch with it’s QPF and snow totals, so I didn’t even [...]
Winter Storm Threat: Feb 7-8 (Initial Call)
Just going to start off by saying that forecast confidence is lower than normal. Miller B type storm will form up late tomorrow into Friday and will initially cause mixing/temp issues across the more southern areas. As the coastal intensifies, banding on the back edge of the system could bring locally higher totals from central [...]
Mid-Atlantic Discussion – Feb 29, 2012
We end the last day of meteorological winter not with snow, but with severe as storms threaten the region for the second time within a week. Currently, there are two tornado watches active in the region… one that extends into most of WV, and another that encompasses extreme southeastern WV and most of western VA. [...]
Mid-Atlantic Discussion – Feb 24, 2012
I can’t believe I haven’t done one of these since August… been too long. The first real chance for severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic this year has arrived! Tomorrow’s looking increasingly promising for at least some severe wind threat in addition to an isolated tornado or two and maybe some hail. Strong post-frontal winds and [...]
Snowfall Verification for Feb 19
While my first two maps left much to be desired, I finally got the storm zoned in on my final forecast: The southern edge of the system did a bit better than expected east of the mountains as the snowfall rates were able to overcome the above freezing surface temperatures. The northern edge of the [...]
Winter Storm Threat: Feb 19 (final call)
Following the latest model trends, it looks like another bust for the DC folks: Finally a decent snow storm for the southern areas, but the DC region will miss out on the good totals once again. A coating to an inch seems like the best forecast for DCA at this time.
