Winter Storm Threat: February 26-27 (Only/Final Call)

It’s time for the southern folks to finally cash in this season. Some spots in North Carolina and southeastern Virginia are expected to get as much snow as they typically get in a year, so this should be a fun storm for them. I battled a bit in the placement of the 1″ and 2″ […]

Winter Storm Threat: February 21-22 (Only/Final Call)

Lots of uncertainty with this system. How much precip. falls as snow before the changeover, timing of the changeover, rates during the daytime hours, etc. The only thing that’s not really in question will be the surface temperatures at the start of the storm. Cold, cold, cold. Models overall show a little more potential to […]

Winter Storm Threat: February 16-17 (Final Call)

Cut back on totals in central and eastern Pennsylvania a little bit, and tweaked 8-12″ contour ever so slightly. On the south end of things, I lowered the snow+sleet totals in North Carolina east of the Appalachians and into far southeastern Virginia. Still a solid 5-10″ event around the greater D.C. region. Would have been […]

Winter Storm Threat: February 16-17 (Initial Call)

Holy crap, a decent storm around D.C. where the rain/snow/mix line won’t be a concern! It’s a miracle. So the biggest question at this point is QPF. There are some really juiced-up forecast models, and some not so much. Either way, snow ratios start getting good around D.C. and points north… talking 15:1 or better […]

Winter Storm Threat: January 25-27 (Only/Final Call)

Not going to go into details because I have spent way too much time looking at this storm between work and home. Also, I’m prepping for a snow chase in New Jersey, so that has taken up much of my afternoon. A bit more conservative than the Euro and NWS overall. The lack of support […]

Winter Storm Threat: January 23-24 (Final Call)

Not much change from the initial forecast, save for higher totals across Pennsylvania and slight adjustments to the southern edges of the 1-2″ and 2-4″ contours. The front-end thump will bring most of the snow into the region, with the mountains getting some additional accumulation along the back edge. I don’t anticipate much, if any, […]

Winter Storm Threat: January 23-24 (Initial Call)

Lots of things to keep tabs on as this next system moves up through the region tomorrow night into Saturday. Temperatures from the surface all the way up to around 750-800 mb will be cutting it close, but the strengthening low and good rates on the front end of the system will help things along. […]