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Winter Storm Threat: January 22-24 (Final Call)

One final update before the frozen stuff starts to fall in the southwestern corner of my map. Made minor adjustments to the fringes in central/eastern North Carolina and up around NYC, with a slight expansion of the 18″+ contours.


Timing and impacts from this potential blizzard remain on track to what I said earlier today.

Winter Storm Threat: January 22-24 (Second Call)

The heavy snow in the core of the Mid-Atlantic remains on track, given the newest model data and latest trends. Two notable changes were made to the northern and southern fringes of the snow accumulation. General timing remains the same, with snow expected to start in the D.C. area between 3-6 p.m. Friday.


The northeastern edge of the snow accumulation was cut back as confidence increases in the storm track, leaving lower snow amounts across northeastern Pennsylvania into northern New Jersey. On the southern edge, western North Carolina into western Virginia and West Virginia saw snow increases due to better confidence in the QPF forecast and better temperature profiles. Further east, more warm air wrapping into the eastern side of the system made for lower snow forecasts across northeastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and along the immediate Atlantic Coast.

Ice will also be an issue in the Southeast and in southwestern Virginia. Currently, areas in northern South Carolina and central North Carolina are forecast to receive 0.25-0.75″ of ice, according to the NWS.


At the moment, the NWS also has Blizzard Watches posted from the greater D.C. region up through Philadelphia and into NYC and Long Island.


I will be posting a final forecast update this evening.

Winter Storm Threat: January 22-24 (Initial Call)

For those linked here from other sites, you can see my updated forecast here: Winter Storm Final Call

What can I say? This is a classic setup for feet of snow and possible/probable blizzard conditions across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. If you liked February 2010, then you’re gonna like this.


The epicness that is this storm system will start on Friday and end Saturday night/Sunday morning. For the greater DC area, I’m expecting snow to start accumulating in the late afternoon or early evening on Friday. Once it starts, it won’t stop for quite some time, lasting through Saturday in most spots.

Temperatures won’t be frigid, so I-95 and areas south should see more of a dense, wet snow, while areas further north and west get into the drier, fluffier snow. Mixing issues with sleet and rain don’t really become a problem until you get south and east of I-95. The I-95 cities are expected to be at or below freezing at the surface throughout the storm.

On top of all this, strong winds will generate blizzard or close to blizzard conditions mainly in the DC/MD/Delmarva region. Persistent onshore flow will result in fairly high storm surge and beach erosion.

Get home early on Friday, because you won’t want to be out once it starts. Don’t plan on doing anything that involves going outside Friday night or Saturday… unless it’s sledding or a snowball fight.

Winter Storm Threat: January 25-27 (Only/Final Call)

Not going to go into details because I have spent way too much time looking at this storm between work and home. Also, I’m prepping for a snow chase in New Jersey, so that has taken up much of my afternoon.


A bit more conservative than the Euro and NWS overall. The lack of support of big totals from some of the other models in the Mid-Atlantic gave me pause. There’s a lot of moving parts to this system, so it’s really anyone’s game still. I just hope I’m not terribly wrong.

Winter Storm Threat: January 23-24 (Final Call)

Not much change from the initial forecast, save for higher totals across Pennsylvania and slight adjustments to the southern edges of the 1-2″ and 2-4″ contours. The front-end thump will bring most of the snow into the region, with the mountains getting some additional accumulation along the back edge. I don’t anticipate much, if any, additional snow accumulation from the back edge east of the mountains tomorrow afternoon.


The event is already underway across western North Carolina and southwestern Virginia, which is unfolding just about as expected (though I’d rather see more snow reports and less sleet reports).

Now I get to start looking at that late Sunday into Monday snow storm…

Winter Storm Threat: January 23-24 (Initial Call)

Lots of things to keep tabs on as this next system moves up through the region tomorrow night into Saturday. Temperatures from the surface all the way up to around 750-800 mb will be cutting it close, but the strengthening low and good rates on the front end of the system will help things along.


Most spots from near the MD/PA border south and near the coast will change over to rain after the snow has fallen (and while most of you south of the Mason-Dixon are tucked away in bed). The back edge of the precipitation Saturday afternoon will likely switch back over to snow, but time of day, surface temperatures and weaker rates means it shouldn’t amount to much for most spots.

Winter Storm Threat: January 21 (Only/Final Call)

More clipper fun for the Mid-Atlantic, only surface temperatures won’t be so wonderfully cold this time around. Marginal temperatures at the surface and around 900-925 mb as far north as I-70 (maybe even further north?) along with mostly light precipitation hurting snow chances. Most or all of the snow will also fall during daylight hours. One plus is it looks like areas from around D.C. northward will get below freezing tonight before the snow moves in, so the ground should still be nice and cold. Definitely more opportunity to end up lower than my forecast as opposed to higher. The Delmarva Peninsula and southern New Jersey could see heavier banding late in the event, which is kind of alluded to on my map with the 2-4″ stripe in southern New Jersey.


I wish I could wait until the 00z models came out for better forecast confidence, but this will have to do.