Winter Storm Threat: January 23-24 (Final Call)

Not much change from the initial forecast, save for higher totals across Pennsylvania and slight adjustments to the southern edges of the 1-2″ and 2-4″ contours. The front-end thump will bring most of the snow into the region, with the mountains getting some additional accumulation along the back edge. I don’t anticipate much, if any, […]

Winter Storm Threat: January 23-24 (Initial Call)

Lots of things to keep tabs on as this next system moves up through the region tomorrow night into Saturday. Temperatures from the surface all the way up to around 750-800 mb will be cutting it close, but the strengthening low and good rates on the front end of the system will help things along. […]

Winter Storm Threat: January 21 (Only/Final Call)

More clipper fun for the Mid-Atlantic, only surface temperatures won’t be so wonderfully cold this time around. Marginal temperatures at the surface and around 900-925 mb as far north as I-70 (maybe even further north?) along with mostly light precipitation hurting snow chances. Most or all of the snow will also fall during daylight hours. […]

Winter 2014-2015 (DJF) Forecast

I like to keep my seasonal forecasting short and sweet, so here it is: Reasoning: – Latest model guidance and ENSO trends suggest DJF will likely be a weak El Nino. – +PDO to support ridging in the western U.S. and troughing over the Midwest/eastern U.S. – +AMO could help keep the Southeast milder (read: […]

Winter Storm Threat: Jan 28-29 (Only/Final Call)

Well, I *was* going to be lazy and sit this storm out, but today I decided what the heck, let’s make a forecast. It’s a little late… I hate to make a forecast when the event is already underway, but it is what it is. Totals include any sleet that may fall near the coast. […]

Winter Storm Threat: Jan 21 (Final Call)

I strongly believe there will at least be a band (if not continuous then broken) of 8-12″ somewhere from this storm. In this update, I placed it where I think it will be most likely, but would not be surprised if it shifted north or south. It is really hard to pin down the area […]

Winter Storm Threat: Jan 21 (Initial Call)

This storm has really come together on the models in the last 12-18 hours. The vort max has just enough of a dig and neutral/negative tilt to pop a surface low and draw some moisture into the disturbance, which is something these past clippers were missing. There should be some nice snowfall ratios around DC […]