Winter 2014-2015 (DJF) Forecast

I like to keep my seasonal forecasting short and sweet, so here it is: Reasoning: – Latest model guidance and ENSO trends suggest DJF will likely be a weak El Nino. – +PDO to support ridging in the western U.S. and troughing over the Midwest/eastern U.S. – +AMO could help keep the Southeast milder (read: […]

Winter Storm Threat: Jan 28-29 (Only/Final Call)

Well, I *was* going to be lazy and sit this storm out, but today I decided what the heck, let’s make a forecast. It’s a little late… I hate to make a forecast when the event is already underway, but it is what it is. Totals include any sleet that may fall near the coast. […]

Winter Storm Threat: Jan 21 (Final Call)

I strongly believe there will at least be a band (if not continuous then broken) of 8-12″ somewhere from this storm. In this update, I placed it where I think it will be most likely, but would not be surprised if it shifted north or south. It is really hard to pin down the area […]

Winter Storm Threat: Jan 21 (Initial Call)

This storm has really come together on the models in the last 12-18 hours. The vort max has just enough of a dig and neutral/negative tilt to pop a surface low and draw some moisture into the disturbance, which is something these past clippers were missing. There should be some nice snowfall ratios around DC […]

Review: The new WUnderground beta site

So I finally caught wind of the new Weather Underground Beta page and provided them with some feedback, but I figured I could go into a more detailed review here. For this review I looked at the DCA (Ronald Reagan Washington National, DC) page. Keep in mind that this is a beta version and will […]

Winter Storm Threat: Jan 2-3 (Only/Final Call)

Seeing as light snow is already falling across the northern extent of my forecast map, this will be the only forecast issuance for tomorrow’s storm. Back from vacation and ready to welcome 2014 with some fresh snow! Low-level temperatures initially above freezing will eventually cool and allow for a changeover and/or stickage of snow around […]

First severe threat of 2013 in the Mid-Atlantic

While the severe weather outbreak will be more focused on the southern states, I did this write-up just for folks in the Mid-Atlantic. A widespread strong to severe wind event appears to be unfolding over the eastern half of the U.S. Tuesday into Wednesday, with isolated tornadoes also a threat, which is mostly across parts […]