UPDATE March 2nd, 2pm EST: After seeing the latest model forecasts and trends, I would probably shift the 4-8″ and 8-12″+ contours south by about 15-20 miles. — Shifting everything a bit south from the initial forecast and added locally 12″+ wording for the mountains. Accumulations are for snow and sleet, though it will be […]
Meteorological spring is here, but winter isn’t done with us yet. Most of the region will actually start off as rain, but a very strong cold air mass will push southward, bringing the low-level air below freezing and changing areas over to freezing rain and sleet before finally transitioning to snow. The models are handling […]
Same general theme, with a slight shift south along the southern edges and a more pronounced southern shift towards the upper part of the map. Risks are generally to the higher side on the southern fringe areas if the models are to be believed (especially if the overnight front-end thump is fairly wet).
The DC-Baltimore-Philly areas are expected to miss out on the more significant accumulations yet again as bothersome low-level temperatures above freezing and March climo. rear their ugly heads. One of the saving graces with this event is the onset of snow will be overnight, though this did not really help the I-95 corridor and points […]
There were some detail changes due to adjustments in the storm track, which mostly affected central/northern PA, southern VA and the Delmarva Peninsula. Higher confidence in the higher snow totals brought some upscale changes to northern VA. It’s still a low confidence forecast overall, with both upside and downside risks across most of the impacted […]
So here we are with another complicated setup and poor model agreement leading to a low confidence forecast. The good news is it looks like DC is finally going to get a decent storm! It only took until March… Anyway, right now it looks like the biggest risks are along the coast and in PA […]
Here’s my only/final forecast for the snow that will accumulate today into tomorrow: Boundary layer temperatures are once again the main concern with this disturbance once you get east of the mountains. There is not a lot of model agreement regarding the QPF and surface temperatures with this system as it moves across the […]