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Winter Storm Threat: March 4-5 (Only/Final Call)

Can this be the last one, please? Near normal highs are going to feel like heat waves this month.


Most uncertainty is going to come from the changeover from rain to sleet to snow. A slower cold push and/or prolonged sleet could cut down on totals. Regardless of the fact that there’s more downside than upside, it should be a fun storm. Once the changeover to snow does occur, the snow rates should be pretty good, so I’m not too worried about getting accumulations started in the more southern areas when the changeover isn’t until after sunrise. A layer of sleet to start should help the initial snow accumulations as well.

Winter Storm Threat: Mar 16-17 (Final Call)

Not much change from the last map… mostly some expansion of the 4-8″ contour over the mountains and cutting back totals a little bit on the parts of the fringes. I don’t trust how bullish the models are on the snow maps because it looks like temperatures may end up a bit warmer than the raw 2mt in the evening, taking the snow longer to start accumulating. Maybe the front-end stuff will be heavy enough to stick earlier, but I have my doubts.


Still some wiggle room with this, but models are coming to a nice consensus regarding the track, which is pretty much where my snow map is now and was yesterday. There appears to be more upside potential than downside with this event in the 1-4″ areas and up in the mountains, especially if you trust the higher QPF model solutions.

Winter Storm Threat: Mar 16-17 (Initial Call)

With what is hopefully our last snow threat for the season in the greater D.C. area, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the ultimate track of the system in addition to how wet it is. Lower than normal confidence with this forecast, which favors the Euro more than the GFS.


My forecast seems somewhat conservative compared to what some of the models are showing, so I imagine there is probably more upside potential than downside with this disturbance. This thing could still shift some 30-50 miles north or south, so don’t get too hung up with exactly where all the contour edges are at this point.

Winter Storm Threat: Mar 2-3 (Final Call)

UPDATE March 2nd, 2pm EST: After seeing the latest model forecasts and trends, I would probably shift the 4-8″ and 8-12″+ contours south by about 15-20 miles.

Shifting everything a bit south from the initial forecast and added locally 12″+ wording for the mountains. Accumulations are for snow and sleet, though it will be a mostly snow event in the higher total areas.


If the sleet holds out for longer in the morning then totals may be cut down, but on the flip side once the cold air does arrive, we could start to see some higher ratio snowfall.

Models may continue to drift south, but I don’t think it will go much further south if they do. For the DC area, expect some rain to start tomorrow afternoon, which may briefly change over to freezing rain before the sleet moves in. After some sleet, over to all snow probably a little before morning rush hour… then snow through the afternoon hours.

And then we get hit by frigid air. Joy.

Winter Storm Threat: Mar 2-3 (Initial Call)

Meteorological spring is here, but winter isn’t done with us yet. Most of the region will actually start off as rain, but a very strong cold air mass will push southward, bringing the low-level air below freezing and changing areas over to freezing rain and sleet before finally transitioning to snow. The models are handling the speed of this cold air push differently, so there is still a fair amount of wiggle room with the snow totals.


There is still room for this to move north or south by a decent margin. I’ll have a final update after the 18z models come in.

Winter Storm Threat: Mar 24-25 (Final Call)

Same general theme, with a slight shift south along the southern edges and a more pronounced southern shift towards the upper part of the map. Risks are generally to the higher side on the southern fringe areas if the models are to be believed (especially if the overnight front-end thump is fairly wet).

Winter Storm Threat: Mar 24-25 (Initial Call)

The DC-Baltimore-Philly areas are expected to miss out on the more significant accumulations yet again as bothersome low-level temperatures above freezing and March climo. rear their ugly heads.

One of the saving graces with this event is the onset of snow will be overnight, though this did not really help the I-95 corridor and points east during the last event back in the first week of March. Surface temperatures will generally be above freezing in the lower elevations, so these areas will need good rates to make up for it. A large chunk of the precipitation is expected during the daytime hours, where we will have the March Sun to contend with in addition to the temperatures. Higher elevations that stay at or below freezing will fare much better with accumulation.

Forecast confidence is normal to slightly below normal.