We have quite the complicated winter storm on our hands for tonight through tomorrow, with some snow/mixed precipitation expected on the leading edge of the system that will change over to rain in many areas before the back edge transitions over to snow. Accumulations of 1″+ are mostly reserved for the mountains where the back-end [...]
Same general theme, with a slight shift south along the southern edges and a more pronounced southern shift towards the upper part of the map. Risks are generally to the higher side on the southern fringe areas if the models are to be believed (especially if the overnight front-end thump is fairly wet).
The DC-Baltimore-Philly areas are expected to miss out on the more significant accumulations yet again as bothersome low-level temperatures above freezing and March climo. rear their ugly heads. One of the saving graces with this event is the onset of snow will be overnight, though this did not really help the I-95 corridor and points [...]
There were some detail changes due to adjustments in the storm track, which mostly affected central/northern PA, southern VA and the Delmarva Peninsula. Higher confidence in the higher snow totals brought some upscale changes to northern VA. It’s still a low confidence forecast overall, with both upside and downside risks across most of the impacted [...]
So here we are with another complicated setup and poor model agreement leading to a low confidence forecast. The good news is it looks like DC is finally going to get a decent storm! It only took until March… Anyway, right now it looks like the biggest risks are along the coast and in PA [...]
Boundary temperatures and snowfall rates will be the two main things to watch tomorrow as a nice looking vort. max passes over the region. Precipitation will start off as rain for most/all of the region tomorrow, with the back end of the system changing over to a heavy, wet snow. The strong vort. max will [...]
Much more aggressive with the totals this time around, but there is still more upside risk than downside to the forecast. I went with a rough 50/50 blend of the GFS and Euro, with some personal touches here and there. NAM’s still out to lunch with it’s QPF and snow totals, so I didn’t even [...]