A quick update before I head into work… shifted the forecast further south overall and tightened up the contouring in areas that have slightly higher confidence than the initial forecast. This results in a virtual no-show north of DC aside from some flakes in the air to a dusting. Southern VA into northern NC will [...]
Here’s my only/final forecast for the snow that will accumulate today into tomorrow: Boundary layer temperatures are once again the main concern with this disturbance once you get east of the mountains. There is not a lot of model agreement regarding the QPF and surface temperatures with this system as it moves across the [...]
We end the last day of meteorological winter not with snow, but with severe as storms threaten the region for the second time within a week. Currently, there are two tornado watches active in the region… one that extends into most of WV, and another that encompasses extreme southeastern WV and most of western VA. [...]
I can’t believe I haven’t done one of these since August… been too long. The first real chance for severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic this year has arrived! Tomorrow’s looking increasingly promising for at least some severe wind threat in addition to an isolated tornado or two and maybe some hail. Strong post-frontal winds and [...]
Following the latest model trends, it looks like another bust for the DC folks: Finally a decent snow storm for the southern areas, but the DC region will miss out on the good totals once again. A coating to an inch seems like the best forecast for DCA at this time.
Everything trended south in the last 24 hours… So what happened? The main northern stream energy that was supposed to interact/guide the southern energy creating the snow storm has actually moved out ahead of the storm. This changes a few things… 1. The boundary layer will be able to get cooler and drier ahead [...]
What a nightmare of a forecast… If I didn’t already say I was going to put out a snow map today I would probably have waited until tomorrow for a first call. As it is, I might do a second update before my final call on Saturday if the forecast seems to converge well [...]