Winter Storm Threat: Jan 17 (Final Call)
A quick update before I head into work… shifted the forecast further south overall and tightened up the contouring in areas that have slightly higher confidence than the initial forecast. This results in a virtual no-show north of DC aside from some flakes in the air to a dusting. Southern VA into northern NC will [...]
Winter Storm Threat: Mar 4-5 (only/final call)
Here’s my only/final forecast for the snow that will accumulate today into tomorrow: Boundary layer temperatures are once again the main concern with this disturbance once you get east of the mountains. There is not a lot of model agreement regarding the QPF and surface temperatures with this system as it moves across the [...]
Mid-Atlantic Discussion – Feb 29, 2012
We end the last day of meteorological winter not with snow, but with severe as storms threaten the region for the second time within a week. Currently, there are two tornado watches active in the region… one that extends into most of WV, and another that encompasses extreme southeastern WV and most of western VA. [...]
Mid-Atlantic Discussion – Feb 24, 2012
I can’t believe I haven’t done one of these since August… been too long. The first real chance for severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic this year has arrived! Tomorrow’s looking increasingly promising for at least some severe wind threat in addition to an isolated tornado or two and maybe some hail. Strong post-frontal winds and [...]
Winter Storm Threat: Feb 19 (final call)
Following the latest model trends, it looks like another bust for the DC folks: Finally a decent snow storm for the southern areas, but the DC region will miss out on the good totals once again. A coating to an inch seems like the best forecast for DCA at this time.
Winter Storm Threat: Feb 18-19 (second call)
Everything trended south in the last 24 hours… So what happened? The main northern stream energy that was supposed to interact/guide the southern energy creating the snow storm has actually moved out ahead of the storm. This changes a few things… 1. The boundary layer will be able to get cooler and drier ahead [...]
Winter Storm Threat: Feb 18-19 (first call)
What a nightmare of a forecast… If I didn’t already say I was going to put out a snow map today I would probably have waited until tomorrow for a first call. As it is, I might do a second update before my final call on Saturday if the forecast seems to converge well [...]
