Winter Storm Threat: Mar 16-17 (Final Call)

Not much change from the last map… mostly some expansion of the 4-8″ contour over the mountains and cutting back totals a little bit on the parts of the fringes. I don’t trust how bullish the models are on the snow maps because it looks like temperatures may end up a bit warmer than the […]

Winter Storm Threat: Mar 16-17 (Initial Call)

With what is hopefully our last snow threat for the season in the greater D.C. area, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the ultimate track of the system in addition to how wet it is. Lower than normal confidence with this forecast, which favors the Euro more than the GFS. My forecast […]

Winter Storm Threat: Mar 2-3 (Final Call)

UPDATE March 2nd, 2pm EST: After seeing the latest model forecasts and trends, I would probably shift the 4-8″ and 8-12″+ contours south by about 15-20 miles. — Shifting everything a bit south from the initial forecast and added locally 12″+ wording for the mountains. Accumulations are for snow and sleet, though it will be […]

Winter Storm Threat: Mar 2-3 (Initial Call)

Meteorological spring is here, but winter isn’t done with us yet. Most of the region will actually start off as rain, but a very strong cold air mass will push southward, bringing the low-level air below freezing and changing areas over to freezing rain and sleet before finally transitioning to snow. The models are handling […]

Winter Storm Threat: Feb 14-15 (Final Call)

A trough will traverse the Ohio Valley today and will start to take on a negative tilt as it reaches the East Coast, with a nice vort max developing over the Carolinas that will allow for a rapid strengthening of the surface low once it moves off the coast. Cold air aloft and the upper-level […]

Winter Storm Threat: Feb 12-13 (Final Call)

Only real notable adjustment for the final map was the expansion of the 12-18 contour and addition of locally 12+ over northern Maryland and into Pennsylvania. Expanded the 8-12 contour eastward slightly near I-95 and bumped the higher totals in North Carolina eastward a bit. Small changes to the western cut-off of the system as […]

Winter Storm Threat: Feb 12-13 (Second Call)

Not incredibly different from my initial forecast… still uncertainty with the low track, which could cause more/less sleet and rain along the coast and could move the western edge of accumulation west/east. Also have to watch that band on the west side of the storm for possible higher totals. Hard to tell if I should […]