My original forecast from August had to basically be thrown out due to a few key factors. 1. ENSO faltering. While the positive trends have recovered, there was a major misstep in the trend as the values for most of the ENSO regions started to fall. The latest data indicates that the positive trend has [...]
The monthly breakdown: Winter 2012-2013: METHODOLOGY: Looked at the possible/likely ENSO forecast (around +0.9 for DJF holding steady or fading slightly) and matched years within +/- 0.3 of this. Analogs that had negative ENSO anomalies the previous winter and near neutral ENSO during the summer were favored. I then took the previous summers’ temperature anomalies [...]
This was an ugly forecast… pretty much the exact opposite of what actually happened. There was virtually no blocking this year (I was relying on blocking for the cold pattern), and a fairly persistent and strong trough over Alaska prevented any sort of real, long-lasting cold from entering the U.S. DJF temperature forecast: F December [...]
Here’s the summer precipitation anomaly forecast: This is based off of my weighted analog years (2008, 2000, 1999) and current soil moisture.
Here’s the updated forecast for this winter. I used the same six analog years, with different weights (more below). IMPORTANT: The updated outlooks use the NEW 30-year normals (1981-2010), whereas the original forecast used the OLD normals (1971-2000). Overall, there were no drastic changes to the forecast. Winter 2011-2012: The monthly breakdown: ANALOGS: in [year [...]
The Mid-Atlantic will struggle to get to near normal, but most should be able to edge into that category as the southeastern Mid-Atlantic goes drier than normal again. As for snowfall, I expect the Mid-Atlantic to be near normal to slightly above normal (90-125%) throughout the region. I think the storm tracks will be similar [...]