Summer 2011 forecast verification

Overall I’d give my summer 2011 forecast a B+, a grade worthy of a forecast that used one of the hottest summers on record as its main analog to forecast what ended up being yet another record-setting summer of heat. On a month-to-month scale, I’d give June an A-, July a C and August a […]

Enjoy the cooler temps… they’re only temporary

DCA is sitting at +4.0 through the first 12 days of July, with all but two of those days with highs of 91-97. Today was another warm day as temperatures climbed to about 93 before the storms hit. Tomorrow through Sunday looks to be more seasonal to even slightly below normal, with highs in the […]

So what’s on tap for July?

Waaaaaaay back in February, I made this little number for July: EDIT: And here’s the updated look for this month: It looks to be a decent forecast going ahead, with warm adjustments likely needed in the South, Southeast, southern Midwest and southern Mid-Atlantic. The combination of a lingering upper-level ridge and extreme drought conditions in […]

January analogs using Niña winters and strong blocking

Januarys with a moderate/strong Niña in NDJ (-1.0 or lower) and the corresponding January AO and NAO values 1950-present: Year (AO, NAO) 1951 (-0.085, +0.08) 1955 (-1.163, -1.84) 1956 (-1.204, -0.22) 1965* (-1.046, -0.12) 1971* (-0.163, -1.13) 1974** (+0.232, +1.34) 1976 (+0.034, -0.25) 1985 (-2.806, -1.61) 1989* (+3.106, +1.17) 1999** (+0.110, +0.77) 2000 (+1.270, +0.60) […]