Winter 2012-2013 (DJF) Forecast – Update
My original forecast from August had to basically be thrown out due to a few key factors. 1. ENSO faltering. While the positive trends have recovered, there was a major misstep in the trend as the values for most of the ENSO regions started to fall. The latest data indicates that the positive trend has [...]
Winter 2012-2013 (DJF) Forecast – First Look
The monthly breakdown: Winter 2012-2013: METHODOLOGY: Looked at the possible/likely ENSO forecast (around +0.9 for DJF holding steady or fading slightly) and matched years within +/- 0.3 of this. Analogs that had negative ENSO anomalies the previous winter and near neutral ENSO during the summer were favored. I then took the previous summers’ temperature anomalies [...]
May 2012 temperature forecast
Was too busy to post this yesterday… another warm month for the U.S. overall, though the cooler periods are starting to last longer compared to the quick cold shots we had during the winter.
April 2012 temperature forecast
After record March warmth in many areas (except for the West Coast, with some areas receiving record snowfall either in daily values and/or for the whole month of March), we’ll be looking at another warm month. All of the warm signals were in place at the start of last month, but this month the signals [...]
Winter 2011-2012 forecast verification
This was an ugly forecast… pretty much the exact opposite of what actually happened. There was virtually no blocking this year (I was relying on blocking for the cold pattern), and a fairly persistent and strong trough over Alaska prevented any sort of real, long-lasting cold from entering the U.S. DJF temperature forecast: F December [...]
March 2012 temperature forecast
Another warm month is on tap for the eastern two-thirds of the country as we enter the start of meteorological spring: Risks are to the warm side throughout the country as the “torch” continues. Many indices point towards warmth in the eastern US as you have a +NAO, +AO, -PNA, +WPO, and +EPO going into [...]
Summer 2012 (JJA) temperature forecast – First look
There may be wintry weather in the forecast, but it’s about that time of the year to take a look at what summer may bring us. Here’s the summer composite: Temperatures are close to -1F along the West Coast. The monthly breakdown: Forecasts are based on the 1981-2010 normals. METHODOLOGY: I grabbed some rough ENSO [...]
