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tornado

SPC issues a moderate risk for tornadoes

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2016/day1otlk_20161129_2000.html

Summary:

After yesterday’s mostly-failed setup in which tornadoes were more scarce than expected in the Deep South, much higher instability today will likely result in stronger discrete storms that can mature enough to become tornadic. The SPC is targeting the 00z-04z time frame as the most dangerous as the low-level jet picks up, meaning nighttime tornadoes will be a big concern.

Opinion:

The Deep South is no stranger to these after-dark tornado setups, and I agree with the SPC’s forecast. With moisture and energy available right next door in the Gulf of Mexico, all you need is a proper storm system to move through to create a tornado threat. The winds associated with this system are fairly strong, and now the CAPE/shear combo is balanced enough where supercells can more reliably become organized enough to produce tornadoes. There are already multiple classic-looking supercells in Louisiana that are tornado-warned, and it looks like the southern Mississippi Valley will be in for a long night.

Chasecation 2012 Videos

La Crosse, KS tornadoes from 5/25:

…and a time-lapse of the supercell that spawned the nighttime tornadoes:

Thunderstorm time-lapse in May, OK from 6/3:

And here’s a re-post of the Piedmont, OK tornado from 5/29 (just to have all of the videos on one post):

April 3, 2012 Texas tornado videos

U.S. Tornadoes owner/co-author Ian and I have been compiling tornado footage from the outbreak in Texas today. We’re still adding to it, but so far we’ve found 16 videos!

You can view them on the U.S. Tornadoes blog: http://www.ustornadoes.com/2012/04/03/videos-of-the-april-3-2012-tornado-outbreak/

It might take a few seconds to load due to pulling in the video previews from YouTube.

Here’s one of the videos out of Kennedale, Texas:

New Project – U.S. Tornadoes

A little over a month ago, my friend Ian Livingston (@islivingston) started a new project that focuses on the past, present and future of tornadoes in the United States. He has brought me on board as the tornado threat forecaster for the site (www.ustornadoes.com), where I will be posting 1-7 day tornado forecasts every Monday and Thursday. I will also be posting special updates to the forecast if needed.

In addition to my forecasting responsibility, I am also doing some work on the web design as well as posting to the U.S. Tornadoes Twitter feed (@USTornadoes) and Facebook page.

Here is a look at the tornado forecast I wrote yesterday: http://www.ustornadoes.com/2012/03/15/tornado-threat-forecast-mar-15-21/

I will still be posting most of my material to this site, but you can also follow me on U.S. Tornadoes.

Tornado Outbreak ongoing in the Midwest and Southeast

Multiple violent tornadoes are tracking across the Midwest to Southeast today as this High Risk event gets underway.

CLICK HERE for an animated GIF of the long-track debris ball in southern Indiana (image size 3.28 MB).

Here’s the latest SPC outlook:

UPDATE (6:45pm): Another long-lived debris ball went through West Liberty, KY. CLICK HERE for the radar loop (another large image).

UPDATE (7:45pm): Yet another long-lived debris ball… this one went through Salyersville, KY. CLICK HERE for large image goodness.

Severe weather possible in the Mid-Atlantic tonight/tomorrow

The synoptic setup is somewhat favorable for damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado or two tonight into early tomorrow in the southern Mid-Atlantic as storms ahead of a cold front push through the region. Poor lapse rates will likely prevent severe weather from occurring in DC, Baltimore and points north and west.

The storm system will be what we typically see for severe weather setups in the Mid-Atlantic during the winter and early spring… low CAPE/high shear. This system was looking fairly marginal for the region up to this morning due to the poor mid-level lapse rates, but it appears that the previously under-forecast dynamics will help introduce better lapse rates to the southern Mid-Atlantic. It is still fairly borderline, but with a strengthening low-level jet producing 50-60 kt. winds at 925mb it wouldn’t take much to bring those damaging winds to the surface.

925mb winds at 4am:

Forecast sounding for Richmond at 4am:

The sounding shows that there is enough directional shear for the anticipated storms to produce a tornado or two in the southern Mid-Atlantic tonight into tomorrow morning.

SPC’s outlooks for tonight into tomorrow morning:

I am mostly in agreement with them, but I would tone it down to a SEE TEXT instead of a Slight Risk north of the NC/VA border as the storms don’t look to be terribly organized, which is something you want to see for a Mid-Atlantic low CAPE/high shear system (at least for the damaging wind potential).

Hurricane Irene Video

I finally got around to going through all of my Hurricane Irene footage and I put six minutes of it together in a nice summary video:

The video’s description:

Chronological video clips of Hurricane Irene from 26-27 August 2011.

Locations filmed in order (all in NC): Rt. 70, Atlantic Beach, Morehead City, Beaufort, Rt. 70 (again), Rt. 17, Rt. 64 and Columbia.

Video start time is approx. 5:30pm on the 26th and runs through about 1:30pm on the 27th. Tornado damage at the end of the video was along Rt. 64 just 1-2 miles east of the center of Columbia.

I chased with Jason Foster. This was my 1st hurricane chase, and it was Jason’s 8th.