Winter 2014-2015 (DJF) Forecast

I like to keep my seasonal forecasting short and sweet, so here it is: Reasoning: – Latest model guidance and ENSO trends suggest DJF will likely be a weak El Nino. – +PDO to support ridging in the western U.S. and troughing over the Midwest/eastern U.S. – +AMO could help keep the Southeast milder (read: […]

Winter 2012-2013 (DJF) Forecast – Update

My original forecast from August had to basically be thrown out due to a few key factors. 1. ENSO faltering. While the positive trends have recovered, there was a major misstep in the trend as the values for most of the ENSO regions started to fall. The latest data indicates that the positive trend has […]

Winter 2012-2013 (DJF) Forecast – First Look

The monthly breakdown: Winter 2012-2013: METHODOLOGY: Looked at the possible/likely ENSO forecast (around +0.9 for DJF holding steady or fading slightly) and matched years within +/- 0.3 of this. Analogs that had negative ENSO anomalies the previous winter and near neutral ENSO during the summer were favored. I then took the previous summers’ temperature anomalies […]

New Project – U.S. Tornadoes

A little over a month ago, my friend Ian Livingston (@islivingston) started a new project that focuses on the past, present and future of tornadoes in the United States. He has brought me on board as the tornado threat forecaster for the site (, where I will be posting 1-7 day tornado forecasts every Monday […]

Winter 2011-2012 forecast verification

This was an ugly forecast… pretty much the exact opposite of what actually happened. There was virtually no blocking this year (I was relying on blocking for the cold pattern), and a fairly persistent and strong trough over Alaska prevented any sort of real, long-lasting cold from entering the U.S. DJF temperature forecast: F December […]

Summer 2012 (JJA) temperature forecast – First look

There may be wintry weather in the forecast, but it’s about that time of the year to take a look at what summer may bring us. Here’s the summer composite: Temperatures are close to -1F along the West Coast. The monthly breakdown: Forecasts are based on the 1981-2010 normals. METHODOLOGY: I grabbed some rough ENSO […]

February 2012 temperature forecast – Final

Despite some of the teleconnections starting to lean towards a cooler eastern third of the country, the warm signals that remain are still more than enough to combat the cold to win out the month. Unlike January and February, the teleconnections are actually looking somewhat promising for a cold pattern in the eastern U.S. for […]