So I’m going to just ignore tonight’s snow in the northern areas in order to focus on the Sunday event, which is quite challenging with a strong CAD signal from a 1036+ mb High over PA as the precipitation starts to move in from the south and west. I expect most areas to start off [...]
We have quite the complicated winter storm on our hands for tonight through tomorrow, with some snow/mixed precipitation expected on the leading edge of the system that will change over to rain in many areas before the back edge transitions over to snow. Accumulations of 1″+ are mostly reserved for the mountains where the back-end [...]
Same general theme, with a slight shift south along the southern edges and a more pronounced southern shift towards the upper part of the map. Risks are generally to the higher side on the southern fringe areas if the models are to be believed (especially if the overnight front-end thump is fairly wet).
The DC-Baltimore-Philly areas are expected to miss out on the more significant accumulations yet again as bothersome low-level temperatures above freezing and March climo. rear their ugly heads. One of the saving graces with this event is the onset of snow will be overnight, though this did not really help the I-95 corridor and points [...]
There were some detail changes due to adjustments in the storm track, which mostly affected central/northern PA, southern VA and the Delmarva Peninsula. Higher confidence in the higher snow totals brought some upscale changes to northern VA. It’s still a low confidence forecast overall, with both upside and downside risks across most of the impacted [...]
So here we are with another complicated setup and poor model agreement leading to a low confidence forecast. The good news is it looks like DC is finally going to get a decent storm! It only took until March… Anyway, right now it looks like the biggest risks are along the coast and in PA [...]
Somewhat higher confidence in the QPF totals brought about an expansion of the 2-4″ area. The GFS/NAM continue to suggest a snow hole in the northern VA and DC region, which remains a slight risk to the low side. Overall, I think risks are more to the high side, with localized 2-4″ totals possible within [...]